Author: Colin Henderson

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Morning Briefing — Sunday, April 19, 2026 · EST · ~1,150 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing is dominated by a single cascading risk: the Iran ceasefire expires Wednesday and the overnight signals are bad. Iran re-closed the Strait on Saturday, talks have no scheduled date, and Trump has signalled he may not extend. That thread touches energy markets, the Lebanon ceasefire, the IMF’s revised global outlook, and North Korea’s opportunistic missile activity — all in the same 24-hour window. The rest of the world is not standing still while the Hormuz clock runs down. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Iran: Hormuz re-closed, ceasefire clock ticking toward Wednesday ⚑Iran re-imposed control of the Strait … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Sunday, April 19, 2026 · EST · ~1,150 words

Diplomacy, EULeave a comment

Europe should fill the diplomatic vacuum on Iran

Colin Henderson

Important evolving shift proposed for EU to assume control of Iran diplomacy Source: EUISS (originally Dutch) https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/commentary/europe-should-fill-diplomatic-vacuum-iran 14 April 2026 The negotiations between the United States and Iran have failed. That is hardly surprising. The mistrust runs too deep, and Trump has already shown how his diplomacy works: first talks, then bombs, then talks again, all the while keeping up the threats. That is no way to build trust and it is why the Americans are now trapped in a war they cannot seem to end. In Washington, the illusion persists that if only enough pressure is brought to bear … Continue reading Europe should fill the diplomatic vacuum on Iran

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Morning Briefing — Saturday, April 18, 2026 · ~8:00 AM EST · ~1,180 words

Colin Henderson

Introduction Today’s briefing is dominated by a single volatile thread that moved twice in 24 hours: Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” on Friday, triggering a sharp market relief rally, then reimposed “strict control” by Saturday morning. The Lebanon ceasefire is holding at Day 2, but the foundational US-Iran deal remains unsigned — and the ceasefire expiry clock (April 21) is running. The risk environment is not easing; it is oscillating. The dominant tone is controlled instability: enough signal to move markets, not enough to resolve anything. 1. What Changed Hormuz: Open, Then Restricted Again — in 24 … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, April 18, 2026 · ~8:00 AM EST · ~1,180 words

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As many Governments express concern or downplay Mythos cybersecurity warnings Clark sees future open source similar capabilities

Colin Henderson

Semafor World Economy event Could China develop a Mythos competitor? Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for Semafor Cybersecurity concerns about Anthropic’s new model Mythos raised a pressing question for policymakers and executives: Could China develop similar technology in the near future? The answer is yes, if you ask Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark. Within a year and a half, “there’ll be open-source models from China that have these capabilities,” Clark said at Semafor World Economy this week. White House cyber director Sean Cairncross agreed, telling Semafor that “it would be irresponsible” for the US “to assume that that wouldn’t be the case.” After … Continue reading As many Governments express concern or downplay Mythos cybersecurity warnings Clark sees future open source similar capabilities

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Morning Briefing — Friday, 17 April 2026 · 06:30 EST · 1,220 words

Colin Henderson

⸻ Introduction Split-screen day on the Middle East. The Lebanon–Israel 10-day ceasefire took effect at midnight local time, with celebratory gunfire across Beirut and immediate reports of Israeli ceasefire violations — a fragile truce sitting atop an unresolved war. Meanwhile, Macron and Starmer convene around 30–40 countries in Paris today on the Strait of Hormuz, explicitly framing any future maritime mission as independent from the US blockade — a pointed signal about where European security thinking is heading. Beneath both stories sits the IMF’s mid-week warning that the world is one bad month away from a recession-adjacent scenario, and Russia … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, 17 April 2026 · 06:30 EST · 1,220 words

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Morning Briefing — Thursday, April 16, 2026 · 08:25 EST · 1,190 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is defined by a single countdown: the April 21 ceasefire expiry in the US-Iran war, with Pakistan’s army chief physically in Tehran this morning to set the table for a second round of talks. Everything else — oil at $92, chip supply anxiety, Hungary’s transition — is downstream of whether that deadline holds or breaks. There is cautious optimism in Islamabad and Washington; deep structural gaps remain in Tehran. The TSMC earnings this morning add a secondary note: AI demand is resilient but the Hormuz disruption is migrating into specialty chemical supply chains in ways that will take … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, April 16, 2026 · 08:25 EST · 1,190 words

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OSFI Annual Risk Outlook 2027

Colin Henderson

OSFI Introduction Current risk environment Global markets continue to experience episodes of volatility as investors shift between exuberance and sharp selloffs often triggered by geopolitical events. The Canadian economy continues to contend with the negative impacts of the current geopolitical and trade environments. To date, subdued growth and a softer labour market, particularly in regions most impacted by the changing trade dynamics, have characterized our risk environment. While considerable progress is underway to address these challenges, near-term economic threats remain. Geopolitics can act as a driver of risk and can trigger scenarios that have negative outcomes. In this uncertain environment, … Continue reading OSFI Annual Risk Outlook 2027

AI, Business Models, Canada, EU, Geopolitics, NATO, unbanked, USLeave a comment

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 14, 2026 · 07:51 EST · 1,285 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single cascading event: the US naval blockade of Iranian ports that took effect at 10:00 AM EDT Monday, immediately after the collapse of the Islamabad ceasefire talks. The blockade has set off simultaneous shocks across energy markets, NATO unity, and Gulf security. A partial relief signal arrived this morning — Trump says Iran has “called” and wants a deal — creating a whipsaw between escalation and diplomatic revival that will define the day’s market and political moves. Hungary’s watershed election result, landing Sunday, adds a structurally significant European political shift to the mix. 1. … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 14, 2026 · 07:51 EST · 1,285 words

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Axel Springer wins approval for Telegraph takeover

Colin Henderson

German publisher vows to retain newspaper’s ‘British identity’ in £575m deal that ends years of uncertainty Christopher WilliamsBusiness Editor 14 April 2026 12:12pm BST The takeover of The Telegraph by the German publisher Axel Springer for £575m is to be waved through to end almost three years of uncertainty and unlock investment in its future. Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary, told the House of Commons that she had given permission for the Abu Dhabi-backed investor RedBird IMI to sell security over the newspaper to the owner of Politico and Business Insider. The security is structured to be immediately converted to … Continue reading Axel Springer wins approval for Telegraph takeover

Diplomacy, EU, GeopoliticsLeave a comment

The Europe Brief

Colin Henderson

April 14, 2026 Turkey pushes for larger role in Europe’s defense as Trump questions NATO Shutting out Ankara from EU defense initiatives would cause more damage than the U.S. pulling troops from the continent, warned Turkey’s defense minister. Read More France mulls fallback tank for delayed MGCS program in defense update The delay for the MGCS project is due to Germany deciding to start a program for new Leopard 3 tanks, according to Vautrin. Read More Italian government shakes up Leonardo leadership, replacing Cingolani as CEO Some sources said Cingolani’s focus on non-kinetic priorities may have led to the surprise move, with … Continue reading The Europe Brief