Category: Economics

banking, Economics, sociology

Ancient Rome Survived High Inflation – Bloomberg

Colin Henderson

I came across this wonderful piece on inflation and beating it. Nothing is new in the world. Source: Bloomberg 2024 – Bloomberg membership required. _________________________________________________________ Ancient Rome Survived High Inflation. We Can, Too There was more to life in the empire than gore, sex and succession. The economic challenges look similar to our own — with a big dose of brutality.  July 2, 2024 at 3:00 PM EDT By Daniel Moss Daniel Moss is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian economies. Previously, he was executive editor for economics at Bloomberg News. Worried that inflation is coming down too gradually? The Romans had a … Continue reading Ancient Rome Survived High Inflation – Bloomberg

AI, AI_research, Economics

The paper “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish (August 2025)

Colin Henderson

Summary of Key Argument The core thesis of the paper is that macro-financial indicators—specifically, long-term real interest rates—can serve as a market-based “outside view” for forecasting the likelihood and timing of transformative AI (TAI, roughly equivalent to AGI or “superintelligence”) development. The mechanism underpinning this association is straightforward economic theory: Empirically, the authors find—contrary to some prior literature—a robust positive relationship between long-term growth expectations and real interest rates, using: Key Findings and Contributions Topic Paper’s Position & Evidence Interest rates as a forecasting tool Theoretically, both AI-driven rapid growth and existential risk should increase long-term real rates. Empirical evidence … Continue reading The paper “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish (August 2025)

Economics, Economy, Growth

Federal Reserve Consensus Review – August 2025

Colin Henderson

Source: perplexity.ai Key Outcomes of the 2025 Policy Framework Review Interest Rate Policy and Immediate Outlook Economic Context Strategic Shifts Consensus Summary Table Aspect 2025 Review Outcomefederalreserve+2 Rate Policy Expectationsforbes+3 Framework Philosophy Flexible inflation targeting, balanced dual mandate, anchored expectations Early signals for 1-2 cuts (25bp each) in H2 2025 Inflation Target Remains at 2%, no change June: 2.7% headline, 2.9% core Employment Target No numeric goal; balanced approach Rate cuts contingent on labor weakness Current Rate Not addressed in review 4.50% (August 2025) Consensus Forecast Strong chance of September cut, possible December follow-up Rates trend to 3.75% in 2026, … Continue reading Federal Reserve Consensus Review – August 2025

Economics, Economy, Geopolitics, US

US foreign trade barriers (linked 400 pages~)

Colin Henderson

US administration issued a rambling document with a multitude of ‘trade barriers’. “Where sufficient data exist, an approximate impact of tariffs on U.S. exports can be derived by obtaining estimates of supply and demand price elasticities in the importing country and in the United States. Typically, the U.S. share of imports is assumed constant. When no calculated price elasticities are available, reasonable postulated values are used. The resulting estimate of lost U.S. exports is approximate, depends on the assumed elasticities, and does not necessarily reflect changes in trade patterns with third countries. Similar procedures are followed to estimate the impact … Continue reading US foreign trade barriers (linked 400 pages~)

banking, Economics, Geopolitics, Innovation, Risk, Social Theory

US Tariffs Set to Make world economic and military History

Colin Henderson

It is worth capturing this moment. It has the potential to be elevated to a moment in world economic history in the same vein as Bretton Woods, World Trade Organization, United Nations, and many other bedrock areas that preceded and followed WWII. The broad perspective was to encourage World stability in economic terms and those tools were designed to create a global platform of stability that would make WWxx things of the past. Here we are 80 years later and the flaws in those tools with their commensurate inability to adapt have created a global world of bad actors yet … Continue reading US Tariffs Set to Make world economic and military History

Climate, Economics, Geopolitics

Bloomberg highlights 2024

Colin Henderson

In a world where authoritarianism and war are on the march, the fatalists have retreated, shrugging their shoulders in the knowledge that the climate crisis will probably moot everything else. And 2024 was certainly their year. The past 12 months have seen a steady drumbeat of unsuccessful climate negotiations where nations couldn’t put long-term survival ahead of short-term benefit. Talks to halt plastic pollution, protect biodiversity and end desertification all failed. A deal at the COP29 summit left developing nations furious with the amount of money agreed upon to help them battle global warming—and the accord even avoided mentioning the need to move away from fossil fuels. Meanwhile, humanity is burning … Continue reading Bloomberg highlights 2024

AI, Business Models, Economics, Economy

Population shrinkage and the challenge to mitigate impacts on growth

Colin Henderson

Follow up to the NY Times piece ” Can the Government get people to have more babies?” See link at Population 2050. Population 2050 The previous post describes the political backdrop to the shrinkage in population overtaking the large western economies. Why should countries care about shrinking populations at a time of climate change, increasing risk of nuclear catastrophe and the prospect of artificial intelligence taking over jobs? At a global level, there is no shortage of people. But drastically low birthrates can lead to problems in individual countries. At first glance population in times of fewer jobs, climate change and geopolitical turmoil … Continue reading Population shrinkage and the challenge to mitigate impacts on growth