Category: Economics

Economics, Economy, Growth

Federal Reserve Consensus Review – August 2025

Colin Henderson

Source: perplexity.ai Key Outcomes of the 2025 Policy Framework Review The framework removed language about the effective lower bound (ELB), focusing instead on promoting maximum employment and stable prices under flexible economic conditions. The “makeup” inflation strategy introduced in 2020 (aiming for intentional moderate inflation overshoot) was abandoned. The Committee reaffirmed its commitment to flexible inflation targeting. Powell emphasized that anchored inflation expectations were essential in bringing inflation down without sharply increasing unemployment, and the revised statement stresses maintaining well-anchored long-term inflation expectations. No specific numerical employment target will be set, reaffirming that maximum employment levels fluctuate for reasons unrelated … Continue reading Federal Reserve Consensus Review – August 2025

Economics, Economy, Geopolitics, US

US foreign trade barriers (linked 400 pages~)

Colin Henderson

US administration issued a rambling document with a multitude of ‘trade barriers’. “Where sufficient data exist, an approximate impact of tariffs on U.S. exports can be derived by obtaining estimates of supply and demand price elasticities in the importing country and in the United States. Typically, the U.S. share of imports is assumed constant. When no calculated price elasticities are available, reasonable postulated values are used. The resulting estimate of lost U.S. exports is approximate, depends on the assumed elasticities, and does not necessarily reflect changes in trade patterns with third countries. Similar procedures are followed to estimate the impact … Continue reading US foreign trade barriers (linked 400 pages~)

banking, Economics, Geopolitics, Innovation, Risk, Social Theory

US Tariffs Set to Make world economic and military History

Colin Henderson

It is worth capturing this moment. It has the potential to be elevated to a moment in world economic history in the same vein as Bretton Woods, World Trade Organization, United Nations, and many other bedrock areas that preceded and followed WWII. The broad perspective was to encourage World stability in economic terms and those tools were designed to create a global platform of stability that would make WWxx things of the past. Here we are 80 years later and the flaws in those tools with their commensurate inability to adapt have created a global world of bad actors yet … Continue reading US Tariffs Set to Make world economic and military History

Climate, Economics, Geopolitics

Bloomberg highlights 2024

Colin Henderson

In a world where authoritarianism and war are on the march, the fatalists have retreated, shrugging their shoulders in the knowledge that the climate crisis will probably moot everything else. And 2024 was certainly their year. The past 12 months have seen a steady drumbeat of unsuccessful climate negotiations where nations couldn’t put long-term survival ahead of short-term benefit. Talks to halt plastic pollution, protect biodiversity and end desertification all failed. A deal at the COP29 summit left developing nations furious with the amount of money agreed upon to help them battle global warming—and the accord even avoided mentioning the need to move away from fossil fuels. Meanwhile, humanity is burning … Continue reading Bloomberg highlights 2024

AI, Business Models, Economics, Economy

Population shrinkage and the challenge to mitigate impacts on growth

Colin Henderson

Follow up to the NY Times piece ” Can the Government get people to have more babies?” See link at Population 2050. Population 2050 The previous post describes the political backdrop to the shrinkage in population overtaking the large western economies. Why should countries care about shrinking populations at a time of climate change, increasing risk of nuclear catastrophe and the prospect of artificial intelligence taking over jobs? At a global level, there is no shortage of people. But drastically low birthrates can lead to problems in individual countries. At first glance population in times of fewer jobs, climate change and geopolitical turmoil … Continue reading Population shrinkage and the challenge to mitigate impacts on growth