Category: Economy

Economy

The $3.6 Trillion Leveraged Loan Wall of Debt | MISH’S Global Economic Trend Analysis

Colin Henderson

I happen to believe in the L shaped recovery theory.  Recovery will be based on a stop in the reduction of growth, and will flatline there.  We will not go back to the GDP $ levels of 2007 ( a return to 2007 would require a V shaped recovery).  This post from Mish summarises why, quite well. The $3.6 Trillion Leveraged Loan Wall of Debt However, the clock is ticking on many things at once: Leveraged loans, boomer retirements and subsequent downsizing, Pay Option ARMs recasts, Alt-A recasts, and last but certainly not least, a jobless recovery that ensures massive … Continue reading The $3.6 Trillion Leveraged Loan Wall of Debt | MISH’S Global Economic Trend Analysis

Economy

Japan, China Vow To Promote World Economic Recovery

Colin Henderson

In a headline few expected to see, Japan and China put mutual interest in world economic stability and their own economic futures ahead of disagreements and agree to co-operate on economic packages. Japan, China Vow To Promote World Economic Recovery | Nikkei TOKYO (Kyodo)–Japan and China pledged Sunday to promote recovery in the slumping world economy and called for an early conclusion to global trade liberalization negotiations, Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone and Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan said after a one-day economic ministerial meeting in Tokyo. Asia’s two economic giants issued 11 sets of documents highlighting bilateral cooperation in areas … Continue reading Japan, China Vow To Promote World Economic Recovery

Economy

Cabinet Office Pegs Global Economic Growth At Just 1% In 2010

Colin Henderson

I have read enough economic forecasts over the last 2 years to realise that this forecast from the Japanese government is the first time that government has recognised the obvious that the situation we are in is not going to resolve quickly. I am a firm believer in this being an L shaped recovery, and this report points in that direction.  There is just too much lag built into the shift we have experienced.  With such a dramatic and permanent drop in asset values we have seen, the natural deleveraging impact will take years to work through the system. Cabinet … Continue reading Cabinet Office Pegs Global Economic Growth At Just 1% In 2010

Economy

Worries about government debt load in Japan

Colin Henderson

Following on the testimony from US Bernanke today, similar moves in Japan, the next largest world economy (for the moment), to reduce debt which remains at a world leading high. Japan’s long-term public debt, which is already the largest of any industrialized nation, is projected to reach 168 percent of GDP at the end of March 2010, according to the ministry. … Concerning when to achieve a surplus in the primary balance, many members of the Aso-chaired panel believe it may take about 10 years, based on the latest economic growth and revenue projections, according to government officials.At the next … Continue reading Worries about government debt load in Japan

Economy, US5 Comments

Bernanke is concerned about budget deficits

Colin Henderson

Fed Chairman Bernanke picks his words carefully here as the US treads that line between economic recovery and much higher interest rates which would produce other unintended consequences such as stifling growth, currency value shifts or inflation. Bernanke calls for action on deficits | FT Ben Bernanke on Wednesday called on Congress to take action now to bring down long term US budget deficits, warning that the bond market was concerned about rising US government debt. The Federal Reserve chairman said the recent increases in bond yields “appear to reflect concern about large federal deficits” as well as improved optimism … Continue reading Bernanke is concerned about budget deficits

Economy, US1 Comment

No consumer driven economy in US | Geithner in China

Colin Henderson

Some important messages within Geithners speech in China today that paint a very different next few years compared to the last 10, and as the ‘G2’ move to manage a transition the American economy into one that is very different, yet stable.  And all this to be managed against the backdrop of  the fear of eventual inflation, which would devalue foreign holdings in US T-Bills, something China is acutely aware of. These macro factors will play a large role in US banks and credit unions strategy design for the next 5 years. no consumer purchase driven economy in US – … Continue reading No consumer driven economy in US | Geithner in China

Canada, Economy

Countries that are least affected by the Economic Crisis

Colin Henderson

An interesting survey of business reaction to the crisis, and which countries are least impacted.  Full ranking follows the map.  This explains a lot in terms of peoples reactions. Time will tell if this reaction remains constant, and what were the contributors to and rivers of this reaction. Countries that are Least Affected by Recession | digital inspiration The data is based on the results of a business confidence survey that was done on international business people of 24 nations to identify which countries they believe are surviving the crisis the best. Researched by Nobuyo Henderson Continue reading Countries that are least affected by the Economic Crisis

Canada, Economy

Canadian banks will require more capital to remain within targets

Colin Henderson

The IMF have released their working papers following their analysis of Canadian Banks.  Notwithstanding the positive comments about Canadian banks financial position entering the crisis, there remains potential for a requirement for increased capital as negatives in Canada could decrease bank capital by 2.5% – 3.5% over next year or two. The IMF employed the American stress test approach to Canadian banks in this exercise. Here is the current position: There are two ratios being watched – Tier 1 and Total Capital.  In a nutshell and worst case scenario, IMF are saying if 2.5% or 3.5% is taken off either … Continue reading Canadian banks will require more capital to remain within targets

Economy, Innovation

The Aftermath of Financial Crises | study

Colin Henderson

A short and useful paper offerring some points that help to frame the next few years for strategic planning purposes.  This to be read of course in the context of politicians preaching ‘road to recovery’ which leaves the uninformed with the view that we will get over this blip and back to normal. I prefer to think of this as a shift that will profoundly change things for the next few years, with some good and some not so good elements in that shift.  It may be good that the banking industry will be shaken up, and out of that … Continue reading The Aftermath of Financial Crises | study