Category: Europe

China, Diplomacy, Economy, Europe, Frontier_AI, Middle East, US, World Order

Morning Briefing — Monday, 11 May 2026 · 07:20 EST · ~1,190 words

Colin Henderson

The dominant theme today is managed ambiguity at the top of the global order. The US-Iran MOU process is the most active thread, moving faster than markets expected while remaining genuinely unresolved — Iranian factions divided, US leverage uncertain, Hormuz still choked. That negotiating limbo is directly driving the second dominant cluster: the Trump-Xi summit (May 14-15) now shaped primarily by Iran rather than trade or rare earths. Underneath both, European strategic independence is acquiring institutional weight this week — a Kiel Institute paper and fresh Bloomberg reporting on US troop withdrawals represent different facets of the same structural shift. … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, 11 May 2026 · 07:20 EST · ~1,190 words

EU, Europe, NATO

European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it

Colin Henderson

This is the Kiel Institute paper which provides costing to achieve military autonomy that excludes US. This clear evidence that a new structure for Europe following the clear messaging from America, including most recent inclusion of European commentary in recent Security paper which refers to Europe as a terrorist breeding ground. This from a country which promotes guerrilla tactics against its own citizens based on race or political persuasion. European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it ⚑ A paper by five senior German defense economists and industry executives, published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, concludes … Continue reading European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it

Diplomacy, EU, Europe, Military, NATO
Colin Henderson

EU Article 42.7 mutual defence blueprint ordered Following the Iran war drone strike on a British airbase in Cyprus, EU leaders at a summit agreed the European Commission will prepare an operational blueprint for Article 42.7 — the EU’s mutual defence clause. Macron called it “not just words.” Cyprus, an EU but not NATO member, is particularly exposed and has been the most vocal advocate. New today: Formal Commission mandate agreed; blueprint process now underway. Why it matters: Article 42.7 is the functional basis for a European collective defence structure outside NATO’s US-dependent command chain. Operationalising it is a qualitative … Continue reading

EU, Europe

European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it

Colin Henderson

European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it ⚑ A paper by five senior German defense economists and industry executives, published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, concludes European military autonomy is achievable: €50B/year for a decade, €150–200B by 2030. Ten specific capability gaps identified, including command and control, drone mass production, deep strike, and a European Starlink equivalent. New today: The paper is being widely circulated ahead of NATO’s Sword 26 exercises along the eastern flank. Why it matters: ⚑ This is the first serious costed framework for European autonomy at the continental level. At … Continue reading European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it