Today’s briefing is dominated by a single near-inflection: the US-Iran deal text reportedly agreed on June 12, with a signing window framed around the G7 in France next week. That headline crowds almost everything else, but three significant sub-stories run alongside it — Lebanon’s ground war deteriorating despite deal momentum, FISA 702 lapsing after a House Democratic bloc vote, and SpaceX completing the largest IPO in history and beginning to trade. The overall tone is one of compressed contingency: several major things could resolve or unravel simultaneously within the next 72 hours. 1. What Changed ⚑ US-Iran draft deal text … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, 13 June 2026 · 09:09 EST · ~1,200 words

Introduction One story dominates and bends everything else around it: Trump’s announcement late Thursday that a US–Iran “settlement” has been reached, with signing possible this weekend — even as Tehran publicly disputes that any text has been approved. Oil, inflation expectations, Israeli politics, and Gulf diplomacy are all repricing off that single claim. The distinct feature of today’s environment is the gap between Washington’s declared certainty and Tehran’s declared non-participation; one of those positions will collapse within days. Beneath it, US–China tech decoupling deepened materially this week regardless of the Middle East outcome. ⸻ 1. What changed Trump cancels strikes, … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, June 12, 2026 · Morning EST · ~1,250 words⸻

Today’s environment is dominated by a single clustered risk: the April ceasefire is visibly fracturing. Israel and Iran traded direct missile fire for the first time since the truce took effect, the Lebanon front escalated sharply with Tyre now under full evacuation order, and the Trump-Netanyahu relationship broke into public view as a genuine divergence rather than tactical noise. Against that backdrop, the EU moved on two fronts — sanctioning the IRGC over Hormuz and launching its Tech Sovereignty Package — and a US court struck down a major immigration policy with immediate implications for the technology sector. Oil inventories … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 9 June 2026 · 08:00 EST · ~1,250 words