Category: US

Diplomacy, iran, USLeave a comment

Morning Briefing — Sunday, 24 May 2026 · 7:30 AM EST · ~1,240 words

Colin Henderson

Notes Dominant theme today: Suspension and sequencing. The Iran framework is crystallising — Iran has largely won the “Hormuz first, nuclear later” argument, and the 60-day MOU in final drafting is structurally a frozen conflict with a diplomatic face. Ukraine talks are paused but Moscow’s tone shifted, likely due to Ukrainian battlefield pressure. USMCA is five weeks from a hard deadline with Carney holding firm. One flag worth noting: The green card policy reversal got less international coverage than it deserves. It’s a structural shift in US immigration architecture, not enforcement noise — the ⚑ stands. ————— Briefing————- Today’s environment … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Sunday, 24 May 2026 · 7:30 AM EST · ~1,240 words

Israel, USLeave a comment

AIPAC Defeats Massie in Kentucky Primary — Most Expensive House Race in US History

Colin Henderson

Something I have been following and now becomes official. Israel controls US Middle East foreign policy ——— AIPAC Defeats Massie in Kentucky Primary — Most Expensive House Race in US HistoryRep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who had introduced a bill to require AIPAC to register as a foreign agent under FARA, lost his primary Tuesday to Trump-endorsed Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein. Pro-Israel groups — AIPAC’s super PAC and two affiliates — poured over $15.8 million into the race. Total ad spending exceeded $32.6 million.New today: Result confirmed Tuesday night. Massie’s FARA bill dies with his seat; no successor sponsor identified.Why it … Continue reading AIPAC Defeats Massie in Kentucky Primary — Most Expensive House Race in US History

China, Diplomacy, Economy, US, World OrderLeave a comment

Morning Briefing — Friday, May 15, 2026 · EST · ~1,150 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing is dominated by the aftermath of the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, which closed overnight with underwhelming results and a sharp Chinese threat on Taiwan that the US readout chose to ignore. That asymmetric framing is the sharpest geopolitical signal of the week. Simultaneously, Iran negotiations remain deadlocked on two core issues — Hormuz sovereignty and nuclear sequencing — while the three-day Ukraine ceasefire expired amid mutual recrimination. Europe’s strategic posture continues to harden structurally, independent of any single day’s events. 1. What Changed Trump-Xi summit closes: stabilisation, not breakthroughTrump left Beijing with a Boeing order (200 jets vs. … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, May 15, 2026 · EST · ~1,150 words

Geopolitics, Israel, USLeave a comment

US Foreign Policy Capture — Israel Lobby

Colin Henderson

US Foreign Policy Capture — Israel LobbyNew signal today is the posture Trump is being forced into at the Beijing summit: having failed to pressure Iran back to the table through threats, the United States is now in the position of needing China to apply leverage over Tehran — leverage that exists because China is Iran’s primary oil buyer, a relationship Iran preserved partly as a hedge against US maximum pressure. The war that AIPAC celebrated as “historic” and “decisive” has produced an outcome in which Washington is now supplicant to Beijing on Middle East policy. That is a direct … Continue reading US Foreign Policy Capture — Israel Lobby

China, Diplomacy, Economy, Europe, Frontier_AI, Middle East, US, World Order

Morning Briefing — Monday, 11 May 2026 · 07:20 EST · ~1,190 words

Colin Henderson

The dominant theme today is managed ambiguity at the top of the global order. The US-Iran MOU process is the most active thread, moving faster than markets expected while remaining genuinely unresolved — Iranian factions divided, US leverage uncertain, Hormuz still choked. That negotiating limbo is directly driving the second dominant cluster: the Trump-Xi summit (May 14-15) now shaped primarily by Iran rather than trade or rare earths. Underneath both, European strategic independence is acquiring institutional weight this week — a Kiel Institute paper and fresh Bloomberg reporting on US troop withdrawals represent different facets of the same structural shift. … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, 11 May 2026 · 07:20 EST · ~1,190 words

China, Diplomacy, US
Colin Henderson

The Real Role of a Trump-Xi Meeting” — The Diplomat, published ~May 1, 2026Argues the summit’s value is not in breakthroughs but in establishing boundaries under pressure — “managed competition.” Covers Beijing’s pre-summit moves (Announcement No. 21, rare earth leverage), US accusations of Chinese AI IP extraction, and why the Taiwan question remains China’s priority. Worth reading because it frames the May 14 summit correctly: not a reset, but a signalling exercise with Xi holding the stronger hand.The Diplomat The Real Role of a Trump-Xi Meeting The summit is unlikely to deliver decisive breakthroughs. Instead, its importance lies in how … Continue reading

AI, Business Models, Canada, EU, Geopolitics, NATO, unbanked, US

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 14, 2026 · 07:51 EST · 1,285 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single cascading event: the US naval blockade of Iranian ports that took effect at 10:00 AM EDT Monday, immediately after the collapse of the Islamabad ceasefire talks. The blockade has set off simultaneous shocks across energy markets, NATO unity, and Gulf security. A partial relief signal arrived this morning — Trump says Iran has “called” and wants a deal — creating a whipsaw between escalation and diplomatic revival that will define the day’s market and political moves. Hungary’s watershed election result, landing Sunday, adds a structurally significant European political shift to the mix. 1. … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 14, 2026 · 07:51 EST · 1,285 words

Economy, EU, Geopolitics, IMF, UK, US

UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL IMBALANCES

Colin Henderson

#IMF March 3, 2026 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY After more than a decade of steady decline, global imbalances have widened in they reflect economic fundamentals and desirable policies, the buildup and persistence recent years. While current account surpluses and deficits can be appropriate when of large imbalances raise concerns when they are driven by policy distortions and unwind in a disorderly manner. The expansion of industrial policies and the rise in trade restrictions—often motivated by imbalances themselves—has intensified the debate on the causes and consequences of global imbalances, despite limited analytical and empirical clarity on how both policies affect the current account. … Continue reading UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL IMBALANCES

Business Models, China, Economics, EU, Geopolitics, US

Iran Offers Europe a Hormuz Lifeline — and the Price Could Be the Dollar

Colin Henderson

“Iran Offers Europe a Hormuz Lifeline — and the Price Could Be the Dollar” — IBTimes UK, April 4, 2026 https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/iran-strait-hormuz-transit-negotiations-1790190 Worth reading because it connects the immediate Hormuz transit negotiation to the structural BRICS-dollar question: non-dollar energy settlement mechanisms, the US national debt crossing $39 trillion mid-war, and the emerging pattern of European nations negotiating separately with Iran. One of the cleaner structural pieces published this week amid a lot of operational noise. ———————————————- Iran’s proposal to negotiate transit access through the Strait of Hormuz could reshape global energy dynamics and challenge the petrodollar system. Bernadette B. TixonPublished 04 April … Continue reading Iran Offers Europe a Hormuz Lifeline — and the Price Could Be the Dollar