Category: US

US1 Comment

The debt glut and risk to banks

Colin Henderson

The survivability of banks generally is todays topic.  The Greek situation has one possible outcome of contagion across numerous aspects with potential for another economic crisis, despite the cries from many that the crisis is over. This week Brad de Long took issue with Niall Fergusons recent piece (A Greek crisis is coming to America)  wherein Niall highlighted the international country debt crisis was not just Greece, Portugal and Spain, but included the US.  He is one of many US commentators who are becoming increasingly shrill against Niall and others even raising his personal life style as a means to … Continue reading The debt glut and risk to banks

online+banking, US

While twentysomethings – entertainment .. social networking but thirtysomethings – manage finances online | Finextra

Colin Henderson

I am usually suspicious of surveys, but there appears to be a ring of reality to this one.  There is a link to the survey questions, which I found intriguing. Youth and tech savvy not always related – Wells Fargo survey Stephanie Smith, SVP, online sales and marketing, Wells Fargo, says: "There’s so much in the news about social networking but it’s interesting that just 10 percent of respondents said they make social networking a high priority, compared to 65% of those who make their finances a high priority." Technorati Tags: wells fargo,genX,genY Continue reading While twentysomethings – entertainment .. social networking but thirtysomethings – manage finances online | Finextra

Payments, SEPA, US

Non Cash Growth as a barometer of Payment Innovation

Colin Henderson

CapGemini have come out with their World Payments Report – 2009 [pdf 60 pages]. Lots of statistics, but the one that leapt out at me is this. Japan stands out as a growth leader, despite being a mature economy.   Certainly their growth potential is large given the traditional consumer cash economy, but I have to look at the North American lowly 5% and wonder that lack of innovation in payments is not a driver. Certainly there remains lots of cash transactions to convert to payments but nominal innovation in the works to migrate to electronic.  The report notes that cash … Continue reading Non Cash Growth as a barometer of Payment Innovation

US

Abandoned Schools in Detroit | no sign of recovery here

Colin Henderson

I have mentioned more than a few times my belief that recovery is not a return to 2007. The new normal will create damatic shifts and new paradigms for bank planning. Detroit gets picked on a lot …. but these pictures are not pictures of a temoorary set-back. Prepare to be disturbed. This might go some way to explain why houses in Detroit can be purchased for as little as $5K. Abandoned Schools in Detroit Researched by Nobuyo Henderson Continue reading Abandoned Schools in Detroit | no sign of recovery here

Economy, US3 Comments

China and America economic future – Ferguson/ Fallows debate

Colin Henderson

A summary in NYT of the fascinating Ferguson/ Fallows debate at Aspen on the economic relationship between China and US. Ferguson: US and China are divorcing economically.  China will focus on internal consumption, not exports.  “Depreciation (of US $) is inevitable and the Chinese are working to end the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency.” Fallows: “…  doesn’t know what the future will hold, but he believes that Chinese officials still see the dollar as their least risky investment. Domestically, China will not turn democratic, but individual liberties will expand. He agreed that China and the U.S. will dominate … Continue reading China and America economic future – Ferguson/ Fallows debate

US

Morgan Stanley and MUFG in joint push

Colin Henderson

Morgan Stanley hooks up with one of the largest Japanese banks to compete with Citi and JP Morgan. Morgan Stanley and MUFG in joint push | FT Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is set to merge its securities subsidiary with Morgan Stanley’s Japanese securities operations, to create one of the top three brokerages in Japan. The Japanese bank and Morgan Stanley have been in talks since MUFG invested $9bn last year into the then-struggling US broker, for a 21 per cent stake. Researched by Nobyuo Henderson Continue reading Morgan Stanley and MUFG in joint push

Canada, Economy, US3 Comments

Consumer mindsets in North America have shifted permanently with regard to finances

Colin Henderson

After my last post, I thought it better to follow up with some facts to support my contention that this economic recovery is L shaped in Canada and US.  This is not meant to be an economic projection, and I leave that to the professional economists.  However in terms of planning, banks ought to consider the high probability of a scenario where the reduction in economic activity will level off but hardly see growth in the near future.  This will be driven by consumer confidence and frankly their financial circumstances. If we go back to the root cause of the … Continue reading Consumer mindsets in North America have shifted permanently with regard to finances

US

“We are less than 50 days away from a meltdown of State government”

Colin Henderson

California might just be the forerunner of a trend here.  The single largest impact of the new smaller world we have entered is reduction in tax revenues, and with Government costs higher than before, the need for deleveraging applies to Government too. MISH’S Global Economic Trend Analysis California State Controller John Chiang says California 50 Days From Financial Meltdown. …. Personal income taxes were $475 million below (-23.0%) estimates in the May Revision. Corporate taxes were down $84.4 million (-25.8%), and sales taxes fell by $109 million (-3.3%). Researched by Nobuyo Henderson Continue reading “We are less than 50 days away from a meltdown of State government”