Budget 2023 The 2023 federal budget is the government’s plan to build a stronger, more sustainable, and more secure Canadian economy—for everyone. Link Continue reading A Made-in-Canada Plan: Strong Middle Class, Affordable Economy, Healthy Future
Despite the general view that Canada and its banks is in relatively better condition that international peers, down side risks remain, and are relatively unchanged since Jun 2009. This statement sums that up, and introduces a key point about this crisis and how little has been done to prevent re-occurrence. Bank of Canada Financial System Review Despite notable improvement in funding markets, funding and liquidity constraints remain an important area of vulnerability. Should a negative shock occur, such as a renewed downturn in the global economy or a loss of investor confidence, funding and liquidity pressures would likely reappear relatively … Continue reading Bank of Canada notes consumer credit remains a risk
In the regular Monetary Policy Report the Bank of Canada keeps their focus on a low interest rate environment right through 2010. On inflation the view is mixed … The main upside risks to inflation relate to the possibility of a stronger-than anticipated recovery in the global economy. A stronger global recovery would be transmitted to Canada via trade, financial, confidence, and commodity price channels. There is also the risk that Canadian domestic demand could be more robust and have a more sustained momentum than projected. On the downside, a stronger-than-assumed Canadian dollar, driven by global portfolio movements out of … Continue reading Bank of Canada joins other Central Banks is calling for caution
CapGemini have come out with their World Payments Report – 2009 [pdf 60 pages]. Lots of statistics, but the one that leapt out at me is this. Japan stands out as a growth leader, despite being a mature economy. Certainly their growth potential is large given the traditional consumer cash economy, but I have to look at the North American lowly 5% and wonder that lack of innovation in payments is not a driver. Certainly there remains lots of cash transactions to convert to payments but nominal innovation in the works to migrate to electronic. The report notes that cash … Continue reading Non Cash Growth as a barometer of Payment Innovation
Following up on the previous post covering the Bank of Canada’s view that Canadian Banks do not have a productivity gap [pdf 19 pages] relative to US Banks, here is the basis for that contention within a 2006 report. The conclusion copied here in whole is in my view, woefully misleading and contradictory. It reads to me like someone with political motivations has turned facts into something that meets policy objectives. Analysis to follow. This work examines the efficiency and productivity of Canadian and U.S. banks in three ways. First, we compare key performance ratios and find that (i) the … Continue reading Canadian Banks have a Productivity Gap relative to the US
In this talk at Kingston last Tuesday, Tim Lane, Deputy Governor Bank of Canada lays out a quite lucid view [ 9 pages] of the opportunities and challenges facing Canada in recovery. Highlights: labour productivity and output is the fundamental challenge that existed before and will continue post recession the size of the working population is to decrease significantly for demographic reasons, and neither immigration nor baby boomers remaining longer in the workforce will significantly alter that prediction the financial services industry is critical to Canada at 20% of the economy Canadian producivity has been dropping because of insifficient investment … Continue reading The Canadian Economy Beyond the Recession | Bank of Canada
After my last post, I thought it better to follow up with some facts to support my contention that this economic recovery is L shaped in Canada and US. This is not meant to be an economic projection, and I leave that to the professional economists. However in terms of planning, banks ought to consider the high probability of a scenario where the reduction in economic activity will level off but hardly see growth in the near future. This will be driven by consumer confidence and frankly their financial circumstances. If we go back to the root cause of the … Continue reading Consumer mindsets in North America have shifted permanently with regard to finances
Deep in the Harper transcript this little gem indicating Canada and India have been working on the framework of a proposal for the G20 to consider on financial regulation. Transcript: Stephen Harper interview As you know, Canada has co-chaired with India the working group on future financial regulatory reform. We have a very good report which I think will gain consensus. Essentially, we did come down on that one in kind of a middle-ground position we hope will get the support of both the United States and Europeans and others. And that is, that we actually think it is important … Continue reading Canada and India develop regulation proposals for G20
Transcript: FT interview with Manmohan Singh – India Transcript: Stephen Harper interview – Canada Transcript: FT interview with Lee Myung-bak – South Korea Transcript: FT Interview with Sergei Lavrov – Georgia Transcript: FT Interview with Barack Obama – US Transcript: India’s security advisor on Obama Transcript: FT interview with Taro Aso – Japan Continue reading For the record – State Leader interviews before G20 – Financial TImes
I have to take issue with this statement by the Bank of Canada Deputy Governor made this morning to the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance. Without a full and proper understanding of the crisis, how can our leaders be exepcted to appropriately address it. In particular this is central bank advice to the House of Commons. Yes a global solution is required, but no it begain inside all countries borders, and here is the Canadian experience followed at this blog. Opening statement by Pierre Duguay Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada to the House of Commons Standing … Continue reading Memo to BofC | Canadian lesson ought to be benefit of early co-operative action – not “it began outside … “
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