Tag: finance

banking, Canada

Plumery expands digital banking experience platform into Canada

Colin Henderson

With the changes occurring for Canadian Credit Unions using Central1 here is a press release from a new to Canada player from Amsterdam in the core and digital banking space – Plumery. _________________________________________ Press Release: Plumery expands digital banking experience platform into CanadaPlumery’s expansion, collaborating with Vancouver-based Aequilibrium, brings specific Canadian market capabilities to support credit unions delivery of personalized, compliant, and elevated member experiences. October 2nd 2025, Amsterdam. Plumery, the digital banking experience platform, today unveiled Canada-specific features and integrations giving Canadian credit unions a clear path to deliver personalized, compliant, and modern digital banking experiences. Canadian financial institutions … Continue reading Plumery expands digital banking experience platform into Canada

AI

Follow up to “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” (Chow, Halperin, Mazlish, 2025) – Test and Conclusion

Colin Henderson

introduces a novel approach for forecasting the timelines for transformative AI by analyzing macro-financial markets—specifically, the behavior of long-term real interest rates. TEST: apply this framework to current situation and explain what the output tells us about transformative AI timelines. Analysis Follows: (Perplexity.ai) 1. Theoretical Mechanism 2. Empirical Analysis Empirical evidence provided in the paper (across 59 countries, 35 years): Table: Key Relationships Macro Variable Empirical Finding Long-term GDP growth expectations Positively correlated with real interest rates Long-term growth volatility Slightly negative effect on real rates Short-term (0–5 yr) GDP growth forecasts Negative/ambiguous effect Country risk (CDS spreads) Positively correlated … Continue reading Follow up to “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” (Chow, Halperin, Mazlish, 2025) – Test and Conclusion

AI, AI_research, Economics

The paper “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish (August 2025)

Colin Henderson

Summary of Key Argument The core thesis of the paper is that macro-financial indicators—specifically, long-term real interest rates—can serve as a market-based “outside view” for forecasting the likelihood and timing of transformative AI (TAI, roughly equivalent to AGI or “superintelligence”) development. The mechanism underpinning this association is straightforward economic theory: Empirically, the authors find—contrary to some prior literature—a robust positive relationship between long-term growth expectations and real interest rates, using: Key Findings and Contributions Topic Paper’s Position & Evidence Interest rates as a forecasting tool Theoretically, both AI-driven rapid growth and existential risk should increase long-term real rates. Empirical evidence … Continue reading The paper “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish (August 2025)

Economy, Growth, US

Monetary Policy 5 Yr Fed Framework Review

Colin Henderson

August 22, 2025 Chair Jerome H. Powell At “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy,” an economic symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, WyomingWatch Live Over the course of this year, the U.S. economy has shown resilience in a context of sweeping changes in economic policy. In terms of the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, the labor market remains near maximum employment, and inflation, though still somewhat elevated, has come down a great deal from its post-pandemic highs. At the same time, the balance of risks appears to be shifting. In my remarks today, … Continue reading Monetary Policy 5 Yr Fed Framework Review

Economics, Economy, Growth

Federal Reserve Consensus Review – August 2025

Colin Henderson

Source: perplexity.ai Key Outcomes of the 2025 Policy Framework Review Interest Rate Policy and Immediate Outlook Economic Context Strategic Shifts Consensus Summary Table Aspect 2025 Review Outcomefederalreserve+2 Rate Policy Expectationsforbes+3 Framework Philosophy Flexible inflation targeting, balanced dual mandate, anchored expectations Early signals for 1-2 cuts (25bp each) in H2 2025 Inflation Target Remains at 2%, no change June: 2.7% headline, 2.9% core Employment Target No numeric goal; balanced approach Rate cuts contingent on labor weakness Current Rate Not addressed in review 4.50% (August 2025) Consensus Forecast Strong chance of September cut, possible December follow-up Rates trend to 3.75% in 2026, … Continue reading Federal Reserve Consensus Review – August 2025

AI, Business Models, Innovation, productivity

Blackrock Investment themes 2025

Colin Henderson

In listening to Blackrock Jay Jacobs Head of ETF he mentioned the investment themes Blackrock has identified in the context of re-industrialisation of the economy. See below for detail, but the core three are: Mega Force Description & Investment Implications Demographic Divergence Aging populations in developed economies are expected to constrain growth and productivity, while emerging markets with younger populations and expanding middle classes may benefit from higher growth potential[3][5]. Digital Disruption & AI The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence and digital technologies is transforming productivity, business models, and entire industries. BlackRock sees AI as a foundational driver of future … Continue reading Blackrock Investment themes 2025

crypto, Stablecoin

Current Government and Reports on Stablecoin systemic problems

Colin Henderson

Here is an overview and summary of current views on Stablecoins based on research attributed to Perplexity.ai.. There are good reasons for USDC to be a legitimate Stable Stablecoin, but so many opinions and views often with proprietary positions to maintain, that the effect of the Genius act is being lost in that morass. This blog is about direction not particular stocks, but the freewheeling nature of crypto is winning the battle for clarity. And the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) report (attached below) is thrown into the mix taking the approach everyone is wrong except the author. It is … Continue reading Current Government and Reports on Stablecoin systemic problems

crypto

Stablecoin Act brings Crypto closer to mainstream finance

Colin Henderson

I have not been a supporter of Stablecoin due to lack of safety and regulatory provisions in the same vein as regulated Banks. The Genius (really ??) Act changes that and provides for regulatory provisions similar ~ to that which governs other financial entities, including maintenance of capital requirements and money laundering protection. The AML provisions are weak and will not capture small medium bad actors. Time will tell and I really hope that under Carney we will see some movement in Canadian finance. since we end to miss innovation completely in Canadian Banking and Finance. Similarly I hope OSFI … Continue reading Stablecoin Act brings Crypto closer to mainstream finance

AI_factories, AI_research, Infrastructure

The Evolution of AI Infrastructure: From Hyperscaler Dominance to the Rise of AI Factories (2024–2045)

Colin Henderson

The global landscape of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is undergoing a profound transformation, shifting from the current era dominated by hyperscalers—massive cloud providers such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud—towards a future where AI Factories, purpose-built and sovereign-controlled facilities for manufacturing intelligence, are poised to prevail. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of this evolution, examining the technological, economic, and geopolitical forces shaping the transition. Drawing on recent market data, industry forecasts, and emerging trends, the report details the limitations of the hyperscaler model, the architectural and operational innovations of AI Factories, and the implications for global … Continue reading The Evolution of AI Infrastructure: From Hyperscaler Dominance to the Rise of AI Factories (2024–2045)

Business Models

The US and UK are both cutting red tape – but will this help consumers?

Colin Henderson

Attributed to Monica Eaton, Founder and CEO of Chargebacks911: “The recent executive order granting the White House direct control over independent regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Federal Trade Commission (FTC), and Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is a concerning shift that could reshape financial oversight, consumer protections, and technology regulation. This move, mirrored by developments in the U.K., signals a broader global shift in regulatory control—one that threatens to stifle competition and innovation, not enhance them.” “With the shuttering of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), the launch of innovative new systems like Open Banking now hangs in … Continue reading The US and UK are both cutting red tape – but will this help consumers?