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Mearsheimer-Walt: Framework and Challenge to the Liberal Rules Based Order

Colin Henderson

Supporting material to post on Risk … Hormuz Who They Are and Why They Matter Together John Mearsheimer (Chicago) and Stephen Walt (Harvard) are the two most prominent realist critics of American foreign policy from within the mainstream of the discipline. They don’t always agree on everything, but their critiques converge on a core diagnosis: the liberal international order is neither as liberal, as orderly, nor as beneficial to American interests as its architects claim. They became publicly linked through the 2006 paper — and 2007 book — The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy. But their broader frameworks predate … Continue reading Mearsheimer-Walt: Framework and Challenge to the Liberal Rules Based Order

AI

Risks Cannot Be Mitigated Without Proper Risk Definition Based on Factual Structure — e.g. Hormuz

Colin Henderson

Colin Henderson | Bankwatch.ca Historical research and analysis – Claude.ai (analysis posted separately) The Structural Thesis The liberal rules-based order masks but does not correct the natural hegemonic propensity of powerful states. Institutional frameworks — democratic checks, multilateral structures, constitutional constraints — act as the brake on that propensity. Remove the institutional framework through autocratic or highly concentrated leadership, and the hegemonic drive expresses itself without the liberal mask. This is not a policy choice. It is a structural shift. And standard risk frameworks are not built to model it. Hormuz is the current operational instance of that thesis in … Continue reading Risks Cannot Be Mitigated Without Proper Risk Definition Based on Factual Structure — e.g. Hormuz

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Liberal Values in the Post-WW2 Institutional Architecture – research and analysis

Colin Henderson

Research and analysis with Claude AI. Backgrounder to Risk Mitigation post: TITLE: Risks cannot be mitigated without proper risk definition based on factual structure – e.g. Hormuz Liberal Values in the Post-WW2 Institutional Architecture Prompt: Diplomacy and Values since WW2. What are the liberal values used in construction of post WW2 institutional architecture including but not limited to,  NATO, world bank, Marshall plan Output The post-WW2 order was a deliberate construction, driven by a diagnosis of what caused the catastrophe: nationalism, autarky, power politics without rules, and the failure of collective security in the 1930s. The architects — primarily American … Continue reading Liberal Values in the Post-WW2 Institutional Architecture – research and analysis

AI

Decision ordered the Trump administration to desist from applying the president’s directive WSJ

Colin Henderson

Anthropic Wins Injunction in Court Battle With Trump Administration WSJ Judge Rita F. Lin of the Northern District of California in her decision ordered the Trump administration to desist from applying the president’s directive that federal agencies stop using Anthropic’s technology, and from implementing its designation of the company as a risk to the national security supply chain. She also required the government to provide a report by April 6 detailing how they have complied with her ruling. background Claude.ai The ruling just dropped today. Here’s the picture: The ruling: Judge Rita Lin granted Anthropic’s preliminary injunction, issued Thursday, two … Continue reading Decision ordered the Trump administration to desist from applying the president’s directive WSJ

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 17 March 2026 · Toronto time · ~1,340 words

Colin Henderson

Today is Day 18 of the US-Israel war on Iran, and the dominant tone is escalation on multiple simultaneous fronts. Three crises are now compounding each other: a Middle East war that is reshaping global energy markets and European security doctrine simultaneously; a Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict that has crossed a threshold few anticipated; and a Canada-US trade relationship drifting back toward friction after a brief March thaw. The news environment today is notably darker than yesterday — two senior Iranian figures reportedly killed this morning, oil prices pushing through $100 again, and 400 bodies still being pulled from a Kabul hospital. … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 17 March 2026 · Toronto time · ~1,340 words

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Monday, 9 March 2026

Colin Henderson

Anchored to America/Toronto time | Format: delta-focused 1. What Changed 🔴 INFLECTION POINT FLAG — Iran Names Hardline Successor: Mojtaba Khamenei Appointed Supreme Leader Oil Smashes Through $100/bbl; G7 Finance Ministers Convene Oslo: U.S. Embassy Struck by Incendiary Device — Iran Link Probed Canada-U.S. Trade Talks Resume After Five-Month Freeze 🔴 INFLECTION POINT FLAG — France Expands Nuclear Arsenal, Extends Deterrence to European Allies EU Digital Omnibus Advances — GDPR Weakened for AI Training Markets: Oil Shock Compresses Rate-Cut Expectations 2. New & Emerging Norway: Ayatollah Video Posted to Google Maps at Time of BlastA social media and open-source thread … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, 9 March 2026

AI, Canada

The Canada AI Strategy Task Force was officially launched in September 2025

Colin Henderson

The Canada AI Strategy Task Force was officially launched in September 2025 by Minister Evan Solomon, marking a renewed effort to update and advance the country’s National AI Strategy. This initiative comes at a critical juncture as technological transformation and geopolitical forces reshape national priorities. Government of Canada launches AI Strategy Task Force and public engagement on the development of the next AI strategy From: Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada Key facts about the AI Strategy Task Force Source perplexity.ai In summary: The Task Force represents Canada’s commitment to leading in responsible and ambitious AI deployment, with emphasis on broad … Continue reading The Canada AI Strategy Task Force was officially launched in September 2025

AI

AI helped recover £500m lost to fraud -UK government

Colin Henderson

A theme is developing in business that AI contributes business value by eliminating one of the moost pervasive data issues, one which Banks reallly suffer but all businesses do a large extent: that issue is co-relating customer data from disparate sources and producing a novel profile which can be used to create value through customer activity, inadvertent or deliberate, by identifying items such as missed opportunities, fraudulent activity or customer ignorance which resulted in losses or missed new business. The UK givernment has develpoed an AI tool to create a picture of citizen activity related to government payments, much of … Continue reading AI helped recover £500m lost to fraud -UK government

AI

What is behind the staggering ascent of Palantir?

Colin Henderson

The unorthodox firm is profiting from the AI and Trumpian revolutions Source The Economist May 8th 2025|PALO ALTO|5 min readListen to this story ALEX KARP acts like everyone hates him. As the boss of Palantir strutted the stage at a recent gathering of clients, he got a kick out of sounding perverse, in his tousle-haired, punk-professor way. He used words like “masturbation” and “self-pleasuring”. He berated Silicon Valley, though he was speaking in Palo Alto, its heartland. At the last minute, he cancelled an interview with The Economist, though he used to sit on its parent company’s board; he did not like … Continue reading What is behind the staggering ascent of Palantir?

Geopolitics, Military

Inside China’s dangerous nuclear game

Colin Henderson

This article is part of Engelsberg Ideas’ latest series, ‘The Nuclear World Transformed’, in which our writers explore the history and current state of the global nuclear landscape, and how it is being reshaped by a new age of great-power competition.  Between 1990 and 2001 something happened in China that is unthinkable in today’s tense world. In short, an American wandered through the Chinese nuclear archipelago and came out to tell the tale. It sounds like a novel but it is a lesson in game theory and it is pure fact. The American was the director of the Technical Intelligence Division … Continue reading Inside China’s dangerous nuclear game