Category: Economy

Economy, GeopoliticsLeave a comment

Morning Briefing — Friday, 13 March 2026

Colin Henderson

Eight stories across four sections, running to ~1,350 words. A few things worth flagging from today’s file:The structural signal in the analysis pick — Hormuz was closed not by a naval blockade but by drone strikes close enough to spook insurers into self-deterrence. Iran spent almost nothing; the global cost is measured in trillions of dollars of disrupted trade. That mechanism has changed the calculus for every energy chokepoint permanently.The Khamenei succession remains the most uncertain variable. His opening statement hardened every Iranian position simultaneously — Hormuz, US bases, the war tempo — with no visible off-ramp language. Whether that … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, 13 March 2026

Diplomacy, Economy, GeopoliticsLeave a comment

# Morning Briefing — Sunday, 8 March 2026

Colin Henderson

America/Toronto time | ~1,200 words 1. What Changed Iran War Day 9: Oil infrastructure now targeted, escalation intensifies US and Israeli strikes hit Tehran oil storage depots and refining facilities for the first time overnight — the first deliberate strikes on civil industrial infrastructure in the conflict. Iran retaliated with fresh missile salvos toward Israel and Gulf states. Trump has signalled a further escalation wave this weekend and says the war ends only when Iran’s leadership “cry uncle.” ⚠️ Civilisational inflection point flag: Day 9 confirms this is no longer a limited strike campaign — it is an active war … Continue reading # Morning Briefing — Sunday, 8 March 2026

Economy, Growth, US

Monetary Policy 5 Yr Fed Framework Review

Colin Henderson

August 22, 2025 Chair Jerome H. Powell At “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy,” an economic symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, WyomingWatch Live Over the course of this year, the U.S. economy has shown resilience in a context of sweeping changes in economic policy. In terms of the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, the labor market remains near maximum employment, and inflation, though still somewhat elevated, has come down a great deal from its post-pandemic highs. At the same time, the balance of risks appears to be shifting. In my remarks today, … Continue reading Monetary Policy 5 Yr Fed Framework Review

Economics, Economy, Growth

Federal Reserve Consensus Review – August 2025

Colin Henderson

Source: perplexity.ai Key Outcomes of the 2025 Policy Framework Review Interest Rate Policy and Immediate Outlook Economic Context Strategic Shifts Consensus Summary Table Aspect 2025 Review Outcomefederalreserve+2 Rate Policy Expectationsforbes+3 Framework Philosophy Flexible inflation targeting, balanced dual mandate, anchored expectations Early signals for 1-2 cuts (25bp each) in H2 2025 Inflation Target Remains at 2%, no change June: 2.7% headline, 2.9% core Employment Target No numeric goal; balanced approach Rate cuts contingent on labor weakness Current Rate Not addressed in review 4.50% (August 2025) Consensus Forecast Strong chance of September cut, possible December follow-up Rates trend to 3.75% in 2026, … Continue reading Federal Reserve Consensus Review – August 2025

Economy

Market and President stand off

Colin Henderson

http://www.perplexity.ai/page/dow-tumbles-1000-points-and-do-03oaviMmQaCw1UST0VEwjA US stock markets plummeted on Monday, April 21, 2025, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 1,000 points as President Donald Trump escalated his attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a “major lo ser” and demanding immediate interest rate cuts. The President’s comments triggered broader market volatility, with the S&P 500 falling 2.3% and the dollar weakening against major currencies. According to multiple reports from major news outlets, the verbal assault on the Fed’s monetary policy comes amid growing concerns about economic stability and inflation targets. Continue reading Market and President stand off

Canada, Economy, Risk, Roam

Benjamin Tal economist CIBC – Canada -US trade future

Colin Henderson

Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets 10/04/25 Despite all the calls to diversify Canada’s trade, the country will end up more dependent on the United States once tariff negotiations have concluded, according to a well-known economist. “We are in the midst of a global trade war, and in a global trade war, like in the Cold War, you have to choose sides,” Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets, said. On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump turned his global trade war into a faceoff with China after he announced a 90-day reprieve on higher reciprocal tariffs levied against other countries, but raised … Continue reading Benjamin Tal economist CIBC – Canada -US trade future

AI, Cybersecurity, Economy, Risk

John Law, the man who blew up the French economy

Colin Henderson

From Engelsbergideas. A rich and relevant commentary on John Law. In 1674 William was called on by the Scottish parliament to give a commentary on a report into the running of the Royal Mint. It was an outsider DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) moment The echoes from 400 years ago reverberate today and. add dimension to Risk development. Financial Markets look at risk for a single point of failure. Law is a classic example we can recognize today in the new US government. He infiltrated and invented fiat currency, global trade, cost reduction, country appropriation, real estate accumulation. Yet he … Continue reading John Law, the man who blew up the French economy

Economics, Economy, Geopolitics, US

US foreign trade barriers (linked 400 pages~)

Colin Henderson

US administration issued a rambling document with a multitude of ‘trade barriers’. “Where sufficient data exist, an approximate impact of tariffs on U.S. exports can be derived by obtaining estimates of supply and demand price elasticities in the importing country and in the United States. Typically, the U.S. share of imports is assumed constant. When no calculated price elasticities are available, reasonable postulated values are used. The resulting estimate of lost U.S. exports is approximate, depends on the assumed elasticities, and does not necessarily reflect changes in trade patterns with third countries. Similar procedures are followed to estimate the impact … Continue reading US foreign trade barriers (linked 400 pages~)

Canada, Economy, US

In response to today’s news, when United States imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, CCI President Benjamin Bergen issued the following statement:

Colin Henderson

Council of Canadian Innovators In response to today’s news, CCI President Benjamin Bergen issued the following statement: “The latest tariffs imposed by the U.S. government are another stark reminder that Canada cannot take access to the American market for granted. Now is a moment for us to prove what we’re capable of; we can build a better and more resilient economy starting today. While we fully support the federal government’s decision to respond with countermeasures, retaliation alone is not a strategy. Canada needs a long-term plan that strengthens our domestic economy, reduces our dependence on unpredictable trading partners, and ensures Canadian firms have … Continue reading In response to today’s news, when United States imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, CCI President Benjamin Bergen issued the following statement:

Economy, EU, Geopolitics

Germany’s Economy Was Once the Envy of Europe. Not Anymore

Colin Henderson

This from NY Times confirms we are collectively in a state of chaos in terms of ‘world order’. In this blog one of my primary focus is on business and banking risk. Canada is a classic forerunner to what we see in Germany in today’s election. There was a time where my primary focus was bad actors and criminal elements including bad actor governments. The notion of risk has moved inward and banks must take care of their own risk management and deploy their own mitigation factors. That means isolating and understanding risks to their bank and taking arbitrary actions … Continue reading Germany’s Economy Was Once the Envy of Europe. Not Anymore