Category: Geopolitics

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briefing

Colin Henderson

Morning Briefing — Monday, 16 March 2026Toronto time | ~1,300 words 1. Top Stories — What Changed Iran war enters third week with no ceasefire frameworkIsrael’s military says it is preparing at least three more weeks of strikes with “thousands of targets” remaining. Iran fired approximately 700 missiles and 3,600 drones at US and Israeli targets since 28 February. An Iranian commander on 15 March reaffirmed the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be used as a pressure point. Khamenei’s status remains officially disputed — Iran’s foreign minister insists he is governing; Western intelligence assessments are more cautious.New today: Israel … Continue reading briefing

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Morning Briefing — Monday, 16 March 2026

Colin Henderson

1. US-Israel-Iran War / Strait of Hormuz — Day 17 Status: Conflict is now in its third week with no ceasefire framework in place. Israel’s military has stated it is preparing for at least three additional weeks of strikes, with “thousands of targets” still to hit. Iran has fired approximately 700 missiles and 3,600 drones at US and Israeli targets since 28 February. Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei’s status remains officially contested — Iran’s foreign minister claims he is in good health and managing the country, while questions about his wellbeing persist internationally. An Iranian commander on 15 March reaffirmed the … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, 16 March 2026

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Morning Briefing — Sunday, March 15, 2026

Colin Henderson

1. What Changed Iran War — Day 15: Kharg Island Struck, Baghdad Embassy Hit Summary: US forces bombed military installations on Kharg Island — Iran’s primary oil export terminal — while Iranian drones struck the US Embassy helipad in Baghdad and a major Emirati energy facility. New today: Trump announced the Kharg Island strike; the State Department offered a $10M reward for intelligence on Khamenei and other top officials. The Embassy helipad attack confirms Iranian retaliation now targets US diplomatic infrastructure. Why it matters: Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iranian oil exports; its degradation deepens Iran’s economic pain but raises … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Sunday, March 15, 2026

AI, Geopolitics, intel, Middle East, MilitaryLeave a comment

Analysis -Drone War Evolution: Equilibrium, Scenarios, and Off-Ramps

Colin Henderson

Introduction If previous wars were tanks and trenches the rapid shift to AI and physical cheap and effective drones point to a new step in drone warfare although it suggests more of a catch up on US part. It doesn’t feel like a Little Boy, moment but opposite and will extend the war, not bring diplomatic pressure unless targeting becomes more strategically aimed at driving diplomatic off ramps. Or in consideration of plausible scenarios is the Yuan repricing of Hormuz oil a more likely creative market driven indicator of what will bring an off ramp while drones produce a holding … Continue reading Analysis -Drone War Evolution: Equilibrium, Scenarios, and Off-Ramps

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Morning Briefing — Saturday, 14 March 2026

Colin Henderson

Toronto time | Operation Epic Fury: Day 15 A busy Saturday morning. Key delta since yesterday:Lead story is the Kharg Island strike — announced overnight, confirmed this morning. Trump explicitly spared the oil infrastructure this time while threatening it as the next rung. Iran’s retaliatory threat is symmetric: hit our oil, we hit everyone’s. Brent opens Monday with that hanging over it.Two embedded signals worth tracking: The yuan-denominated Hormuz passage offer from a senior Iranian official is the first structured exit signal in 15 days and may have Beijing’s fingerprints on it — relevant to the China proxy thread. No … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, 14 March 2026

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Morning Briefing — Friday, 13 March 2026

Colin Henderson

Eight stories across four sections, running to ~1,350 words. A few things worth flagging from today’s file:The structural signal in the analysis pick — Hormuz was closed not by a naval blockade but by drone strikes close enough to spook insurers into self-deterrence. Iran spent almost nothing; the global cost is measured in trillions of dollars of disrupted trade. That mechanism has changed the calculus for every energy chokepoint permanently.The Khamenei succession remains the most uncertain variable. His opening statement hardened every Iranian position simultaneously — Hormuz, US bases, the war tempo — with no visible off-ramp language. Whether that … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, 13 March 2026

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Morning Briefing — Thursday, 12 March 2026

Colin Henderson

“What Changed” items, three new/emerging flags, five secondary items, and one long-form pick.A few things worth flagging from this morning:The Russia tactical integration item is the sharpest new development — moving from general targeting assistance to specific drone doctrine is qualitatively different and will require a Western coalition response of some kind. Watch for NATO statements later today.The France nuclear doctrine signal is the carry-forward item with the longest arc — if Macron moves from signalling to any kind of formalised burden-sharing arrangement, it restructures European security architecture in ways that will take years to fully register.On Canada-US trade — … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, 12 March 2026

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Could Iran be using China’s highly accurate BeiDou navigation system?

Colin Henderson

https://aje.news/uhkcio This is genuinely significant, and your instinct to track it is right. Here’s the brief analytical read: gps #beidou https://aje.news/uhkcio BeiDou / Iran — What the Article EstablishesThe core claim, sourced to former French intelligence director Alain Juillet, is that Iran’s missile accuracy has improved markedly since the June 12-day war, and BeiDou is the most credible explanation. The supporting timeline is more concrete than the headline suggests:∙ Iran reportedly signed an MOU in 2015 to integrate BeiDou-2 into its military infrastructure, particularly for missile guidance ∙ Access to BeiDou’s encrypted military signals is believed to have been granted … Continue reading Could Iran be using China’s highly accurate BeiDou navigation system?

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War in the Middle East takes hold of the global economy

Colin Henderson

Venezuela, Greenland, tariffs, the Supreme Court, and now fresh instability in the Middle East. 2026 has been developing at warp speed so far, and it’s hard to keep up. Still, in this fast-moving environment, questions are – understandably – arising over what the economic implications of the US-Israeli war with Iran will be. The honest answer would be a typical economist’s response: it all depends. It all depends on how long the war will last, whether some semblance of political stability can emerge in Iran, and, most importantly, how long the Strait of Hormuz will be disrupted.  In our base … Continue reading War in the Middle East takes hold of the global economy

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Morning Briefing — Monday, 9 March 2026

Colin Henderson

Anchored to America/Toronto time | Format: delta-focused 1. What Changed 🔴 INFLECTION POINT FLAG — Iran Names Hardline Successor: Mojtaba Khamenei Appointed Supreme Leader Oil Smashes Through $100/bbl; G7 Finance Ministers Convene Oslo: U.S. Embassy Struck by Incendiary Device — Iran Link Probed Canada-U.S. Trade Talks Resume After Five-Month Freeze 🔴 INFLECTION POINT FLAG — France Expands Nuclear Arsenal, Extends Deterrence to European Allies EU Digital Omnibus Advances — GDPR Weakened for AI Training Markets: Oil Shock Compresses Rate-Cut Expectations 2. New & Emerging Norway: Ayatollah Video Posted to Google Maps at Time of BlastA social media and open-source thread … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, 9 March 2026