Category: Geopolitics

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Morning Briefing — Friday, 17 April 2026 · 06:30 EST · 1,220 words

Colin Henderson

⸻ Introduction Split-screen day on the Middle East. The Lebanon–Israel 10-day ceasefire took effect at midnight local time, with celebratory gunfire across Beirut and immediate reports of Israeli ceasefire violations — a fragile truce sitting atop an unresolved war. Meanwhile, Macron and Starmer convene around 30–40 countries in Paris today on the Strait of Hormuz, explicitly framing any future maritime mission as independent from the US blockade — a pointed signal about where European security thinking is heading. Beneath both stories sits the IMF’s mid-week warning that the world is one bad month away from a recession-adjacent scenario, and Russia … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, 17 April 2026 · 06:30 EST · 1,220 words

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Morning Briefing — Thursday, April 16, 2026 · 08:25 EST · 1,190 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is defined by a single countdown: the April 21 ceasefire expiry in the US-Iran war, with Pakistan’s army chief physically in Tehran this morning to set the table for a second round of talks. Everything else — oil at $92, chip supply anxiety, Hungary’s transition — is downstream of whether that deadline holds or breaks. There is cautious optimism in Islamabad and Washington; deep structural gaps remain in Tehran. The TSMC earnings this morning add a secondary note: AI demand is resilient but the Hormuz disruption is migrating into specialty chemical supply chains in ways that will take … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, April 16, 2026 · 08:25 EST · 1,190 words

AI, Business Models, Canada, EU, Geopolitics, NATO, unbanked, USLeave a comment

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 14, 2026 · 07:51 EST · 1,285 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single cascading event: the US naval blockade of Iranian ports that took effect at 10:00 AM EDT Monday, immediately after the collapse of the Islamabad ceasefire talks. The blockade has set off simultaneous shocks across energy markets, NATO unity, and Gulf security. A partial relief signal arrived this morning — Trump says Iran has “called” and wants a deal — creating a whipsaw between escalation and diplomatic revival that will define the day’s market and political moves. Hungary’s watershed election result, landing Sunday, adds a structurally significant European political shift to the mix. 1. … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 14, 2026 · 07:51 EST · 1,285 words

Diplomacy, EU, GeopoliticsLeave a comment

The Europe Brief

Colin Henderson

April 14, 2026 Turkey pushes for larger role in Europe’s defense as Trump questions NATO Shutting out Ankara from EU defense initiatives would cause more damage than the U.S. pulling troops from the continent, warned Turkey’s defense minister. Read More France mulls fallback tank for delayed MGCS program in defense update The delay for the MGCS project is due to Germany deciding to start a program for new Leopard 3 tanks, according to Vautrin. Read More Italian government shakes up Leonardo leadership, replacing Cingolani as CEO Some sources said Cingolani’s focus on non-kinetic priorities may have led to the surprise move, with … Continue reading The Europe Brief

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Morning Briefing — Monday, 13 April 2026 · 08:15 EST · 1,280 words

Colin Henderson

The dominant story today is the collapse of US-Iran talks in Islamabad and Trump’s immediate announcement of a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, effective 10:00 AM ET this morning. The ceasefire is nominally intact but under acute strain — the IRGC has already threatened a “harsh and decisive” response to any military approach to the strait. Compounding an already volatile news environment: Orbán’s defeat in Hungary yesterday represents the most significant structural shift in European democratic alignment since Poland’s 2023 election. Markets are reacting badly. Today is more dangerous than yesterday. 1. What Changed Iran-US: Islamabad Talks Collapse, … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, 13 April 2026 · 08:15 EST · 1,280 words

Business Models, Canada, Economy, EU, Geopolitics, Military, NATOLeave a comment

EU Air and Space Shield

Colin Henderson

Some background to something I am watching and which will structurally change risk assessment and global finance. https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/document/download/9db42c04-15c2-42e1-8364-60afb0073e68_en?filename=Joint-Communication%20_Defence-Readiness-Roadmap-2030.pdf https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/document/download/b97e2ffb-4008-463d-bae7-e0ef519847af_en?filename=15102025_Readiness2030_FactsheetSPP_0.pdf The CWP 2026 foresees a European Space Shield Action Plan for Q2 2026. According to the European Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030, the European Space Shield is intended to reinforce the defence capabilities of the Member States and to secure the resilience and protection of space assets and services in response to an increasingly hostile threat environment. It forms part of the broader effort to achieve defence readiness by 2030 through the integration of national and commercial space assets with support from existing … Continue reading EU Air and Space Shield

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Morning Briefing — Sunday, April 12, 2026 · 06:05 EST · 1,310 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing is dominated by a single structural break: the Islamabad peace talks collapsed overnight after 21 hours, with Vance declaring Iran unwilling to accept US terms before departing for Washington. The ceasefire is now in a precarious limbo — still technically in effect but with no deal, no functional Hormuz reopening, and Israel continuing strikes on Lebanon. That failure radiates into every other active thread. Separately, a cluster of AI model and tariff developments warrant tracking. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Islamabad collapses: Vance declares talks failed, ball in Iran’s courtAfter 21 hours of talks at the Serena … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Sunday, April 12, 2026 · 06:05 EST · 1,310 words

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Morning Briefing — Saturday, April 11, 2026 · 08:00 EST · ~1,260 words

Colin Henderson

The day’s gravity is Islamabad. Vance, Witkoff and Kushner are on the ground; Iran’s delegation has arrived with public preconditions rather than an opening position. Two fault lines are already visible: Lebanon (Iran insists it’s covered, Israel and the US say it isn’t) and sanctions relief (Iran wants commitments before substantive talks begin). Meanwhile, overnight intelligence confirms China is weeks away from shipping MANPADs to Iran through third-country masking — simultaneously brokering peace and arming for the next round. Hormuz transit remains near-paralysed. Hungary votes tomorrow in what may be the EU’s most consequential election in a decade. 1. What … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, April 11, 2026 · 08:00 EST · ~1,260 words

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Morning Briefing — Friday, 10 April 2026 · 08:00 EST · 1,290 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single question: does the US-Iran ceasefire, now 48 hours old, hold long enough for today’s Islamabad talks to produce anything durable? It will not. The structural contradictions are already exposed — Iran retains effective control of the Strait of Hormuz, Israel refuses to include Lebanon in the truce, and the delegations arriving in Islamabad carry maximalist mandates from capitals that have not reconciled their core differences. The secondary cluster today is markets repricing both the ceasefire optimism and the Hormuz non-reopening simultaneously, while CUSMA negotiations formally confirm zombie status ahead of the July 1 … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, 10 April 2026 · 08:00 EST · 1,290 words

Economy, EU, Geopolitics, IMF, UK, USLeave a comment

UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL IMBALANCES

Colin Henderson

#IMF March 3, 2026 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY After more than a decade of steady decline, global imbalances have widened in they reflect economic fundamentals and desirable policies, the buildup and persistence recent years. While current account surpluses and deficits can be appropriate when of large imbalances raise concerns when they are driven by policy distortions and unwind in a disorderly manner. The expansion of industrial policies and the rise in trade restrictions—often motivated by imbalances themselves—has intensified the debate on the causes and consequences of global imbalances, despite limited analytical and empirical clarity on how both policies affect the current account. … Continue reading UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL IMBALANCES