Category: Geopolitics

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

The Coming Storm – book review review

Colin Henderson

https://www.amazon.ca/Coming-Storm-Conflict-Warnings-History-ebook/dp/B0F5PCC9ZX I came across this newish book on Franks site. Highly pertinent it covers the state of the world in geopolitical terms leading up to 1914 and WW1, then draws parallels on post Cold War leading up to today. Odd makes the point that we are on a precipice and it could go either way from unexpected events that burst our complacency bubble. Worth the read for today’s world wide geopolitical context. frankdiana.net/2026/05/07/the-coming-storm-why-history-is-warning-us-again/ Continue reading The Coming Storm – book review review

Geopolitics, Israel, US

US Foreign Policy Capture — Israel Lobby

Colin Henderson

US Foreign Policy Capture — Israel LobbyNew signal today is the posture Trump is being forced into at the Beijing summit: having failed to pressure Iran back to the table through threats, the United States is now in the position of needing China to apply leverage over Tehran — leverage that exists because China is Iran’s primary oil buyer, a relationship Iran preserved partly as a hedge against US maximum pressure. The war that AIPAC celebrated as “historic” and “decisive” has produced an outcome in which Washington is now supplicant to Beijing on Middle East policy. That is a direct … Continue reading US Foreign Policy Capture — Israel Lobby

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 12 May 2026 · 6:00 EST · ~1,150 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single, intensifying thread: the US-Iran ceasefire is approaching collapse, with Brent oil back above $107, Trump meeting Xi in Beijing Thursday, and a UK political crisis adding a destabilising second signal. The clustering risk is energy shock persistence + NATO cohesion breakdown + an AI governance pivot in Washington — all moving simultaneously. 1. What Changed Iran ceasefire on “massive life support” — resumption of combat now the base scenarioTrump called Iran’s counter-proposal “garbage” after reading only part of it; said ceasefire is “unbelievably weak.” Iran’s proposal included asserting sovereignty over the Strait of … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 12 May 2026 · 6:00 EST · ~1,150 words

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Saturday, 9 May 2026 · 7:00 EST · 1,105 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single thread: the US-Iran diplomatic clock, which is ticking toward an Iranian response on the peace proposal — expected today — while Hormuz clashes continue and Lebanon’s “ceasefire” collapses in real time. The risk clustering is unusual: a diplomatic opening and active kinetic exchanges are happening simultaneously, making both escalation and deal plausible within 24 hours. Markets are reading the diplomacy optimistically; analysts are more sceptical. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Iran’s response to US peace proposal due today; Hormuz clashes persist Iran is reviewing a US peace memo that would formally end … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, 9 May 2026 · 7:00 EST · 1,105 words

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Thursday, 7 May 2026 · Morning EST · ~1,250 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single macro question: will Iran hand back a usable reply to the US one-page MoU before Washington loses patience? The Iran thread is pulling everything else into its orbit — markets, Hormuz, European positioning, and Lebanon — while a second structural moment plays out in the UK, where today’s local elections are shaping up as the most consequential realignment of British politics in a generation. Underneath both: the India-Pakistan Sindoor anniversary is a quiet reminder that conventional war between nuclear states has been normalised. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Iran replies today: MoU … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, 7 May 2026 · Morning EST · ~1,250 words

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 6 May 2026 · 7:00 EST · ~1,220 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing is defined by convergence: the Iran-China-US triangle reached a new inflection point this morning with Araghchi’s first Beijing visit since the war began, one week before Trump meets Xi. Against that backdrop, Russia violated Ukraine’s unilateral ceasefire within hours of its declaration, Trump has signalled Germany troop cuts will go well beyond 5,000, and the energy-economics pressure from the Hormuz blockade is entering a dangerous phase as Europe’s gas refill season opens. The three threads — Iran diplomacy, NATO fracture, and global economic stress — are now tightly interlocked. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Araghchi meets Wang … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 6 May 2026 · 7:00 EST · ~1,220 words

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 5 May 2026 · EST · ~1,180 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single structural crisis moving on multiple fronts simultaneously: the Hormuz deadlock is now spilling into active military skirmishing while the diplomatic channel remains technically open. Simultaneously, the US-NATO relationship is fracturing publicly — not just rhetorically — with concrete troop and materiel signals. The Trump-Xi summit in nine days adds a third live variable. The day’s news clusters around an energy-and-security crisis that is now manifesting in economic data, alliance architecture, and great power triangulation. 1. Top Stories — What Changed 1. Project Freedom Day One: US Sinks Six Iranian Boats, UAE Hit CENTCOM … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 5 May 2026 · EST · ~1,180 words

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Monday, 4 May 2026 · 07:15 EST · ~1,310 words

Colin Henderson

Note addendum on late breaking China actions. Today’s briefing is dominated by a single high-risk inflection: the US launched “Project Freedom” in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, Iran declared it a ceasefire violation and threatened to attack American forces, and a tanker was struck by projectiles within hours of the announcement. Simultaneously, diplomatic signals from both sides remain alive — Iran is reviewing the US reply to its 14-point proposal — creating a classic dual-track moment where military and diplomatic clocks are running in opposite directions. The NATO fracture over Germany deepens in parallel, with reports that Spain and Italy … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, 4 May 2026 · 07:15 EST · ~1,310 words

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

China issues pivotal step in Hormuz traffic

Colin Henderson

Bloomberg CSaturday’s announcement — just weeks before a long-awaited meeting between President Donald Trump and his counterpart Xi Jinping later this month — signals a far more aggressive stance. Beijing has now directed companies not to abide by US sanctions on private refiners linked to the Iranian oil trade, including heavyweight Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery Co. which was sanctioned last month. Beijing’s move will test the US sanctions system at a time when it’s already under pressure, as Washington vacillates on curbs against Russia, Venezuela and Iran. With Trump’s war against Iran straining its global alliances, China has seized the … Continue reading China issues pivotal step in Hormuz traffic

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Sunday, 3 May 2026 · 08:13 EST · 1,290 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s news environment is dominated by one interlocking system: the US-Iran stalemate has entered a new pressure phase, with the IRGC issuing a direct deadline to Washington, Trump publicly doubting any deal is possible, and the 60-day War Powers clock now expired amid legal and constitutional dispute. Secondary cascades — NATO fracture, Hormuz coalition, oil at $106+, Bank of Canada holding — all trace back to the same originating event. The day’s tone is one of managed escalation on multiple fronts simultaneously. 1. What Changed Iran’s IRGC sets deadline; Trump reviewing 14-point proposal but sceptical ⚑ Iran submitted a formal … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Sunday, 3 May 2026 · 08:13 EST · 1,290 words