Diplomacy

It’s a textbook case of what happens when coercive diplomacy is run through a single mercurial personality rather than institutional architecture.

Colin Henderson

Follow up to China defies post. Trump spent 65 days oscillating between “they haven’t paid a big enough price” on Saturday and “very positive discussions” on Sunday. That whipsaw signalling — repeated throughout the conflict — has had two compounding effects: It handed China its opening. Beijing read the vacillation correctly: Washington needs a deal for domestic reasons (gas at $4.45, War Powers deadline, GOP fractures, midterm optics) but can’t admit it. The Blocking Rules deployment is precisely calibrated to that weakness — increase Iranian economic resilience at the moment US leverage is already eroding, without firing a shot. It … Continue reading It’s a textbook case of what happens when coercive diplomacy is run through a single mercurial personality rather than institutional architecture.

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

China issues pivotal step in Hormuz traffic

Colin Henderson

Bloomberg CSaturday’s announcement — just weeks before a long-awaited meeting between President Donald Trump and his counterpart Xi Jinping later this month — signals a far more aggressive stance. Beijing has now directed companies not to abide by US sanctions on private refiners linked to the Iranian oil trade, including heavyweight Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery Co. which was sanctioned last month. Beijing’s move will test the US sanctions system at a time when it’s already under pressure, as Washington vacillates on curbs against Russia, Venezuela and Iran. With Trump’s war against Iran straining its global alliances, China has seized the … Continue reading China issues pivotal step in Hormuz traffic

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Sunday, 3 May 2026 · 08:13 EST · 1,290 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s news environment is dominated by one interlocking system: the US-Iran stalemate has entered a new pressure phase, with the IRGC issuing a direct deadline to Washington, Trump publicly doubting any deal is possible, and the 60-day War Powers clock now expired amid legal and constitutional dispute. Secondary cascades — NATO fracture, Hormuz coalition, oil at $106+, Bank of Canada holding — all trace back to the same originating event. The day’s tone is one of managed escalation on multiple fronts simultaneously. 1. What Changed Iran’s IRGC sets deadline; Trump reviewing 14-point proposal but sceptical ⚑ Iran submitted a formal … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Sunday, 3 May 2026 · 08:13 EST · 1,290 words

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Saturday, May 2, 2026 · 08:00 EST · 1,280 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by three interlocking crises: the Iran war’s diplomatic stalemate entering its third month; a deepening fracture in the US-NATO alliance that moved this week from rhetoric to punitive action; and a fresh US-EU trade escalation layered on top of both. The 60-day War Powers deadline passed Friday with Trump claiming it doesn’t apply — a constitutional move as significant as anything happening on the battlefield. Brent crude eased 2.9% on thin peace optimism, but physical Hormuz shipping remains near zero. The gap between market pricing and operational reality is widening. 1. What Changed Iran War, Day … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, May 2, 2026 · 08:00 EST · 1,280 words

Diplomacy, Economy, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Friday, 1 May 2026 · 7:10 AM EST · 1,190 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing clusters around institutional decay. The US War Powers 60-day deadline arrives this morning — Congress rejected the sixth attempt to curtail the Iran war, then left town on recess. Meanwhile Israel boards civilian vessels 800 nautical miles from Gaza in European waters, Trump threatens to pull troops from Germany as punishment for allied dissent, and Ukraine strikes Russian oil infrastructure for the fourth time in 16 days. The connecting thread across each story: legal and institutional constraints being tested, bent, or simply ignored. 1. What Changed Iran war hits 60-day War Powers deadline — Congress goes on recess … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, 1 May 2026 · 7:10 AM EST · 1,190 words

AI, Risk

AI in financial services: regulators 2 years behind banks

Colin Henderson

This post is targeted at both banks and regulators (OSFI in Canada ). More specifically Agentic AI is the risk frame here. Agentic AI is defined here in banking context, goes exponentially beyond automation. Take mortgage sourcing. Banks have multiple and defined process for mortgages that sources, adjudicates, processes and funds. Each step is calibrated and defined and understood by regulators and those mortgages go on to be bundled and sold as tranches with known, defined risks. Where Agentic AI takes over the agent determines the best and most effective process to follow and will establish improvements which could bundle … Continue reading AI in financial services: regulators 2 years behind banks

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Thursday, April 30, 2026 · 7:41 AM EST · 1,290 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing is dominated by the Iran conflict entering its 61st day with negotiations stalled, a dual-blockade frozen conflict risk hardening, and two structural breaks visible in the energy order: the UAE’s exit from OPEC (effective today, May 1) and Brent crude above $120. King Charles’s pointed Congress speech and Trump’s immediate threat to reduce US troops in Germany add a transatlantic dimension that is no longer theoretical. The AI-in-banking story has its first systemic-risk marker worth tracking. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Iran/US: Negotiations deadlocked, frozen conflict risk now named Day 61. Trump has publicly rejected Iran’s latest … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, April 30, 2026 · 7:41 AM EST · 1,290 words

Diplomacy
Colin Henderson

This Reuters piece goes some way to explain the confusion within negotiations and Russias relative silence. Suggests no quick solution.Iran’s Guards seize wartime power, weakening Supreme Leader’s role – https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/irans-guards-seize-wartime-power-blunting-supreme-leaders-role-2026-04-28/?utm_source=braze&utm_medium=notifications&utm_campaign=2025_engagementWartime pressure has concentrated power into a narrower, harder-line inner circle rooted in the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the Supreme Leader’s office and the IRGC, which now dominates both military strategy and key political decisions, Iranian officials and analysts say. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/irans-guards-seize-wartime-power-blunting-supreme-leaders-role-2026-04-28/ Claude output Good piece — and it significantly upgrades the analytical picture. Let me work through what it actually means across the negotiation structure, Russia’s silence, and your PT … Continue reading

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 29 April 2026 · 8:33 AM EST · ~1,180 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is defined by three converging forces: a stalemated Iran war that is now clearly a multi-front stress test on US foreign policy, energy markets, and alliance cohesion; a Big Tech earnings day that will deliver the first real accountability test for $600B+ in AI infrastructure spending; and a Fed that held rates again this morning in what is almost certainly Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair. The day has an end-of-an-era quality across all three domains. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Iran peace talks collapse again; Hormuz dual-track proposal on table Iran has submitted a new proposal … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 29 April 2026 · 8:33 AM EST · ~1,180 words

Diplomacy, Economics, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 28, 2026 · 07:30 EST · 1,280 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by the Hormuz diplomatic standoff — Iran floated a novel proposal that moves the nuclear question downstream, and Washington immediately signalled it won’t bite. That diplomatic chill is rippling outward: markets fell in Asia, the NPT Review Conference opened in New York under extraordinary tension, and Germany’s chancellor delivered the sharpest European rebuke of the war to date. Structural stress across the Iran/US/Europe triangle is the defining thread; Canada-CUSMA and AI regulation provide secondary but meaningful signal. 1. What Changed Iran offers Hormuz-first deal; Washington coldIran transmitted a proposal via Pakistan: reopen the Strait, end the … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 28, 2026 · 07:30 EST · 1,280 words