Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 29 April 2026 · 8:33 AM EST · ~1,180 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is defined by three converging forces: a stalemated Iran war that is now clearly a multi-front stress test on US foreign policy, energy markets, and alliance cohesion; a Big Tech earnings day that will deliver the first real accountability test for $600B+ in AI infrastructure spending; and a Fed that held rates again this morning in what is almost certainly Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair. The day has an end-of-an-era quality across all three domains. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Iran peace talks collapse again; Hormuz dual-track proposal on table Iran has submitted a new proposal … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 29 April 2026 · 8:33 AM EST · ~1,180 words

Diplomacy, Economics, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 28, 2026 · 07:30 EST · 1,280 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by the Hormuz diplomatic standoff — Iran floated a novel proposal that moves the nuclear question downstream, and Washington immediately signalled it won’t bite. That diplomatic chill is rippling outward: markets fell in Asia, the NPT Review Conference opened in New York under extraordinary tension, and Germany’s chancellor delivered the sharpest European rebuke of the war to date. Structural stress across the Iran/US/Europe triangle is the defining thread; Canada-CUSMA and AI regulation provide secondary but meaningful signal. 1. What Changed Iran offers Hormuz-first deal; Washington coldIran transmitted a proposal via Pakistan: reopen the Strait, end the … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 28, 2026 · 07:30 EST · 1,280 words

Geopolitics, Israel, Russia

Morning Briefing — Monday, 27 April 2026 · 07:00 EST · 1,287 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by two overlapping crises in uneasy co-existence: a fragile Hormuz-linked ceasefire that is simultaneously the most important diplomatic process in the world and the most likely to fail overnight, and a domestic US security shock following Saturday’s shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. Markets are moving cautiously positive on Iran signals; policy attention in Washington is fractured. Canada’s CUSMA advisory panel holds its first meeting today, entering a negotiating climate that is rapidly souring. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Iran offers Hormuz deal; decouples from nuclear talks Iran transmitted a proposal through Pakistani mediators … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, 27 April 2026 · 07:00 EST · 1,287 words

AI

Top 20 Arms Sales / Country 2023/4

Colin Henderson

Source: STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The independent resource on global security ____________________________________________ South Korea, Russia, Germany show significant increases. When we get 2025 data this trend will show even more of a shift to Europe, Asia reflecting NATO fracturing, and countries that support all growth (Korea). Why it matters: This will create shifts in investment choices and NATO structure, so worldwide implications. This is largely driven by US focus on own self interests and increasingly Israel lobby (AIPAC) influence on foreign policy with intended and untended consequences this brings. It remains to be seen whether this structural shift holds up … Continue reading Top 20 Arms Sales / Country 2023/4

EU, NATO

Hegseth: “Get in a boat”

Colin Henderson

Hegseth: “Get in a boat” — US makes Hormuz formally Europe’s problem Hegseth stated publicly that Europe “needs the Strait of Hormuz much more than we do” and should stop “having fancy conferences” and get in a boat. The White House reportedly circulated a “naughty and nice” list of NATO members — Israel, Poland, the Baltics, and increasingly Germany on the preferred side; Spain and the UK on the punitive side. New today: Hegseth framing now confirmed as official US policy posture, not off-script; Pentagon email gives it teeth. Why it matters: A direct inversion of collective defence logic — … Continue reading Hegseth: “Get in a boat”

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Saturday, 25 April 2026 · 07:00 EST · ~1,270 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing is dominated by a single compounding crisis: Hormuz remains the pivot around which diplomacy, energy markets, and alliance politics are simultaneously spinning. The tone is one of fragile, multi-layered negotiation — Iran talks restart in Islamabad this morning, the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire gets a 3-week extension, but no breakthrough is in sight and oil sits above $105. What makes today distinct is the sudden hardening of the NATO-US rift into concrete institutional threats, with a Pentagon memo floating Spain’s expulsion and a Falklands reversal against the UK. 1 · Top Stories — What Changed Iran talks resume in Islamabad … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, 25 April 2026 · 07:00 EST · ~1,270 words

AI

LLM inefficiency and what could be the better model than next-token prediction

Colin Henderson

A discussion I had with Anthropic Claude verbatim. (Bloomberg: circular support amongst small group of individual players and the inherent financial risk if current frontier models for AI cannot provide the expected value) Prompt: Re the financial risk referred to in this Bloomberg piece, is there any evidence of work on a better inference and reasoning model that doesn’t drive exponential requirements in data centre capacity to support the model. It seems the current model requires is highly inefficient requiring infinite capacity to support. # There’s substantial work underway — but with an important caveat that’s directly relevant to the … Continue reading LLM inefficiency and what could be the better model than next-token prediction

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Friday, 24 April 2026 · 7:45 AM EST · ~1,150 words

Colin Henderson

The dominant story today is the Hormuz standoff crossing a threshold from maritime friction into direct naval combat: ship seizures, Trump’s “shoot and kill” mine-boat order, and the Lebanon ceasefire extension running in parallel — diplomatic and kinetic simultaneously. The news environment is more volatile than yesterday’s; there is no stable ceasefire framework in the Strait, and both sides are now escalating operationally while nominally still talking. Secondary clustering: NATO’s structural pivot is no longer just rhetorical — spending data confirms the break — and North Korean weapons integration in Ukraine is proving more sophisticated than previously assessed. 1. Top … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, 24 April 2026 · 7:45 AM EST · ~1,150 words

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Thursday, April 23, 2026 · 9:42 AM EST · ~1,150 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single structural thread: the Iran ceasefire is holding — barely — while the conditions for its collapse are accumulating in real time. The IMF’s Spring Outlook published this week puts hard numbers on the damage already done. UK domestic politics has its own destabilising drama that is eroding what was left of Starmer’s authority. The AI governance picture is hardening on both sides of the Atlantic, with more institutional scaffolding than actual constraint. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Iran ceasefire extended without deadline; Hormuz seizures continue (Day 55)Trump extended the two-week truce on … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, April 23, 2026 · 9:42 AM EST · ~1,150 words

EU, Military, NATO

Europe Defense Strategy 2026: EU Moves Toward Independent Security

Colin Henderson

EU military independence 2026 EU military independence 2026 This article breaks down what the EU’s rearmament drive actually involves, why it is happening now, and what it means for NATO, global stability, and the future of the Western alliance. EU military independence 2026 Europe is undergoing its most significant military transformation since the end of the Cold War. In April 2026, the European Union is actively advancing its push for EU military independence, a sweeping strategic shift designed to reduce the continent’s reliance on the United States and NATO for its core security needs. Driven by geopolitical turbulence  from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine … Continue reading Europe Defense Strategy 2026: EU Moves Toward Independent Security