Tag: politics

Military, strategyLeave a comment

Strategy and Contradiction: Towards a Theory of Strategic Judgement

Colin Henderson

M.L.R. Smith Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those derived from personal academic reflection. They do not represent or reflect any views or positions, either formal or informal, of any branch of the Commonwealth of Australia. Strategy is often understood as the intellectual process through which political purposes are related to the means available for their achievement, usually under conditions of uncertainty and opposition.[1] It is this understanding that provides the starting point for most strategic thought.[2] Conceiving strategy in these terms, however, invites an earlier question. Before political ends can be related to available means, before courses … Continue reading Strategy and Contradiction: Towards a Theory of Strategic Judgement

sociology

The Sadness of Being the ‘Last Man’

Colin Henderson

​ Francis Fukuyama has long been considered a naive triumphalist. He now wants to set the record straight. Gal BeckermanSeptember 9, 2026 Francis Fukuyama never promised us we’d be happy. To be fair to the many readers who thought otherwise, The End of History and the Last Man, his famous 1992 book, did give off a whiff of utopia, trumpeting a post–Cold War world in which liberal democracy had vanquished competing political systems and everyone could lie back on their affordable chaise longues and raise a glass to the expiration of all strife and struggle. “Several” people each week still ask … Continue reading The Sadness of Being the ‘Last Man’

briefing, intel, UK, US

Top US Lobby Firm Had Hidden Ties to Iran, Russia Oil Tycoons

Colin Henderson

 Summarize ​ Qorvis worked for companies that authorities say are overseen by sanctioned kingpins. The firm says it doesn’t take sanctioned money. Ben BartensteinSeptember 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT In early March, as the war in Iran sent oil prices soaring above $100 per barrel, executives at a Washington-based lobbying firm called Qorvis made an unusual suggestion to senior US officials, according to people familiar with the matter: The Trump administration should relax some sanctions on Iran and Russia to help stabilize the market. Within days, the Treasury Department issued short-term waivers allowing the sale and offloading of Iranian … Continue reading Top US Lobby Firm Had Hidden Ties to Iran, Russia Oil Tycoons

banking, sociology

Bank dropped Churchill after being told he was ‘elitist’

Colin Henderson

Historical figures such as Turing and Austen replaced on notes after research concludes they are ‘contentious and divisive’ Emma Taggart Economics Reporter. Nick Gutteridge Chief Political Correspondent 05 June 2026 8:00pm BST The Bank of England axed historical figures such as Winston Churchill from banknotes after being told they were “elitist and divisive”, The Telegraph can reveal. Research commissioned by the Bank concluded that figures such as Churchill, Alan Turing and Jane Austen were “contentious and not representative of the UK’s cultural and natural diversity”. Officials were advised to replace portraits with images of nature on banknotes because historical figures represented “a backward-looking vision of … Continue reading Bank dropped Churchill after being told he was ‘elitist’

Economics

Morning Briefing — Sunday, 17 May 2026 · 08:00 EST · ~1,180 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s news environment is dominated by the Iran-US ceasefire entering its most volatile phase yet, with a drone strike on a UAE nuclear facility this morning adding hard escalation signal to a week of rhetorical brinkmanship. The Trump-Xi summit aftermath lands in parallel — headline deals claimed, substance disputed — while a WHO-declared Ebola emergency in the DRC adds a second systemic risk thread. The Middle East and global health tracks are reinforcing each other as stressors on an already thin policy bandwidth in Washington. 1. Top Stories — What Changed ⚑ Drone hits UAE Barakah nuclear plant generator — … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Sunday, 17 May 2026 · 08:00 EST · ~1,180 words

EU, Europe, NATO

European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it

Colin Henderson

This is the Kiel Institute paper which provides costing to achieve military autonomy that excludes US. This clear evidence that a new structure for Europe following the clear messaging from America, including most recent inclusion of European commentary in recent Security paper which refers to Europe as a terrorist breeding ground. This from a country which promotes guerrilla tactics against its own citizens based on race or political persuasion. European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it ⚑ A paper by five senior German defense economists and industry executives, published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, concludes … Continue reading European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it

Uncategorized

Mearsheimer-Walt: Framework and Challenge to the Liberal Rules Based Order

Colin Henderson

Supporting material to post on Risk … Hormuz Who They Are and Why They Matter Together John Mearsheimer (Chicago) and Stephen Walt (Harvard) are the two most prominent realist critics of American foreign policy from within the mainstream of the discipline. They don’t always agree on everything, but their critiques converge on a core diagnosis: the liberal international order is neither as liberal, as orderly, nor as beneficial to American interests as its architects claim. They became publicly linked through the 2006 paper — and 2007 book — The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy. But their broader frameworks predate … Continue reading Mearsheimer-Walt: Framework and Challenge to the Liberal Rules Based Order

AI

Risks Cannot Be Mitigated Without Proper Risk Definition Based on Factual Structure — e.g. Hormuz

Colin Henderson

Colin Henderson | Bankwatch.ca Historical research and analysis – Claude.ai (analysis posted separately) The Structural Thesis The liberal rules-based order masks but does not correct the natural hegemonic propensity of powerful states. Institutional frameworks — democratic checks, multilateral structures, constitutional constraints — act as the brake on that propensity. Remove the institutional framework through autocratic or highly concentrated leadership, and the hegemonic drive expresses itself without the liberal mask. This is not a policy choice. It is a structural shift. And standard risk frameworks are not built to model it. Hormuz is the current operational instance of that thesis in … Continue reading Risks Cannot Be Mitigated Without Proper Risk Definition Based on Factual Structure — e.g. Hormuz

AI1 Comment

Liberal Values in the Post-WW2 Institutional Architecture – research and analysis

Colin Henderson

Research and analysis with Claude AI. Backgrounder to Risk Mitigation post: TITLE: Risks cannot be mitigated without proper risk definition based on factual structure – e.g. Hormuz Liberal Values in the Post-WW2 Institutional Architecture Prompt: Diplomacy and Values since WW2. What are the liberal values used in construction of post WW2 institutional architecture including but not limited to,  NATO, world bank, Marshall plan Output The post-WW2 order was a deliberate construction, driven by a diagnosis of what caused the catastrophe: nationalism, autarky, power politics without rules, and the failure of collective security in the 1930s. The architects — primarily American … Continue reading Liberal Values in the Post-WW2 Institutional Architecture – research and analysis

AI

Decision ordered the Trump administration to desist from applying the president’s directive WSJ

Colin Henderson

Anthropic Wins Injunction in Court Battle With Trump Administration WSJ Judge Rita F. Lin of the Northern District of California in her decision ordered the Trump administration to desist from applying the president’s directive that federal agencies stop using Anthropic’s technology, and from implementing its designation of the company as a risk to the national security supply chain. She also required the government to provide a report by April 6 detailing how they have complied with her ruling. background Claude.ai The ruling just dropped today. Here’s the picture: The ruling: Judge Rita Lin granted Anthropic’s preliminary injunction, issued Thursday, two … Continue reading Decision ordered the Trump administration to desist from applying the president’s directive WSJ