Tag: US

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American rhetoric turns protectionist

Colin Henderson

President Obama is beginning to take on the mantle of an embattled and potentially protectionist leader with this comment in Yokohama today. My interest is less politics and more Banks. Such inward looking approaches will inevitably result in inward looking institutions within the US, especially those with government ownership, or essentially government protection. BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11748433i Addressing business executives in Yokohama, President Obama said the economic crisis had shown the limits of depending on US consumers and Asian exporters to drive growth. Continue reading American rhetoric turns protectionist

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Peer-to-peer lending gets a new regulatory regime in the US

Colin Henderson

A fascinating development in the US as a new regulator for peer-to-peer lending appears following vigorous efforts from Prosper to promote an even handed regulatory regime for both borrowers and lenders. Currently the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is the prime regulator, and a similar situation exists in Canada. The creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA) is apparently designed to protect consumers in a host of financial services from p2p lending to reverse mortgages. Certainly more to come on that, but interesting for peer-to-peer lending. Prosper Hails House Passage of Landmark Peer-to-Peer Lending Reforms “Once again, Representative Jackie … Continue reading Peer-to-peer lending gets a new regulatory regime in the US

Payments, SEPA, US

Non Cash Growth as a barometer of Payment Innovation

Colin Henderson

CapGemini have come out with their World Payments Report – 2009 [pdf 60 pages]. Lots of statistics, but the one that leapt out at me is this. Japan stands out as a growth leader, despite being a mature economy.   Certainly their growth potential is large given the traditional consumer cash economy, but I have to look at the North American lowly 5% and wonder that lack of innovation in payments is not a driver. Certainly there remains lots of cash transactions to convert to payments but nominal innovation in the works to migrate to electronic.  The report notes that cash … Continue reading Non Cash Growth as a barometer of Payment Innovation

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US antitrust is the devil

Colin Henderson

Fascinating insght into US antitrust thinking that is quite mind boggling.  They actually believe that the antitrust case against Microsoft promoted Google Chrome and Firefox!  This is a great example of reverse analysis thinking where the result rationalises the approach. Microsoft Internet Explorer became huge because it was better and faster than Netscape.  That was 1996.  Time passes and IE became known as slow.  Firefox emerged, followed by Chrome  I see no connection to antitrust stuff here. My Interview With Antitrust Expert Gary Reback: Google’s Looming Antitrust Issues | TechCrunch One interesting insight from the conversation: I ask Reback if … Continue reading US antitrust is the devil

Economy, US3 Comments

China and America economic future – Ferguson/ Fallows debate

Colin Henderson

A summary in NYT of the fascinating Ferguson/ Fallows debate at Aspen on the economic relationship between China and US. Ferguson: US and China are divorcing economically.  China will focus on internal consumption, not exports.  “Depreciation (of US $) is inevitable and the Chinese are working to end the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency.” Fallows: “…  doesn’t know what the future will hold, but he believes that Chinese officials still see the dollar as their least risky investment. Domestically, China will not turn democratic, but individual liberties will expand. He agreed that China and the U.S. will dominate … Continue reading China and America economic future – Ferguson/ Fallows debate

Canada, Economy, US3 Comments

Consumer mindsets in North America have shifted permanently with regard to finances

Colin Henderson

After my last post, I thought it better to follow up with some facts to support my contention that this economic recovery is L shaped in Canada and US.  This is not meant to be an economic projection, and I leave that to the professional economists.  However in terms of planning, banks ought to consider the high probability of a scenario where the reduction in economic activity will level off but hardly see growth in the near future.  This will be driven by consumer confidence and frankly their financial circumstances. If we go back to the root cause of the … Continue reading Consumer mindsets in North America have shifted permanently with regard to finances

regulation

US releases draft regulatory framework for Financial Institutions

Colin Henderson

The US administration released a draft of their proposed regulatory framework today, putting the Federal Reserve front and centre. The big theme is to promote broader control of any institution involved in banking, and to specifically eliminate exemptions such as the Thrift Charter. Draft Fed report on Financial Institution Regulation pdf – 85 pages Continue reading US releases draft regulatory framework for Financial Institutions

subprime, US

Option ARM – $98 pm on a $315K mortgage … for now

Colin Henderson

The last time saw a graphic such as this was 2007, when the schedule for mortgage resets on US sub prime mortgages pointed to an inevitable crash beginning end of 2007 and through early 2008. Well here is the next picture that is eerily similar with forward predictions of similar catastrophe in 2011.   The US option ARM.  Apparently these are not necessarily sub-prime at least right now.  The real danger exists in the event that interest rates increase meaningfully to co-incide with the reset dates. Also we must look at this in the context of the Banks rushing to repay … Continue reading Option ARM – $98 pm on a $315K mortgage … for now

Economy, US1 Comment

No consumer driven economy in US | Geithner in China

Colin Henderson

Some important messages within Geithners speech in China today that paint a very different next few years compared to the last 10, and as the ‘G2’ move to manage a transition the American economy into one that is very different, yet stable.  And all this to be managed against the backdrop of  the fear of eventual inflation, which would devalue foreign holdings in US T-Bills, something China is acutely aware of. These macro factors will play a large role in US banks and credit unions strategy design for the next 5 years. no consumer purchase driven economy in US – … Continue reading No consumer driven economy in US | Geithner in China

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California is in trouble – hard to imagine what that means

Colin Henderson

Could we see the state of California go under … ? California – a nightmare vision of the future | FT The Californian budget crisis is so severe that all public employees are having to take pay cuts. Public-health services are under serious threat, and there is talk of pushing Aids patients and the terminally-ill out onto the streets. It has proved impossible to raise taxes any further and the bond markets are in revolt. California is looking to Washington for help. But with the federal government running budget deficits of 12% of GDP, and the federal debt pushing up … Continue reading California is in trouble – hard to imagine what that means