Tag: US

Geopolitics

The Forty-Year War

Colin Henderson

How America Lost the Middle East By Lisa Anderson May/June 2023Published on April 18, 2023 In March 2023, China’s announcement that it had brokered renewed diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran threw into sharp relief the United States’ rapidly diminishing role in the Middle East. Shortly after President Joe Biden came to office, the United States completed its inept withdrawal from Afghanistan, a country that Washington had spent 20 years trying and failing to bring into the Western fold. Then the president, who as a candidate had cast Saudi Arabia as a “pariah” because of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s alleged … Continue reading The Forty-Year War

Economy

Bidenomics- hardly game changing

Colin Henderson

“Yes, at the margin, there’ll be some more chips made here. Is it going to be, are we going to get 30%, 40%, 50% of global production? No, nowhere near that. Is the ED revolution going to continue? I don’t think the $7,500 rebate is going to drive that. What’s going to drive that is ultimately market economics and innovation. You might coax another mile or two per gallon out of internal combustion engines, but if there’s going to be a tech breakthrough, it’s going to be across the battery platforms and the mileage and the range and the pricing … Continue reading Bidenomics- hardly game changing

Risk

Live Updates: The Fed Hinted That Rate Cuts Could Come Soon

Colin Henderson

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a two-decade high but suggested that recent progress in lowering inflation could enable it to cut interest rates soon. Updated  July 31, 2024, 2:49 p.m. ET6 minutes ago Pinned Federal funds target rate Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged at their July meeting, as economists had expected, and hinted that recent progress in lowering inflation could enable them to cut interest rates soon. Continue reading Live Updates: The Fed Hinted That Rate Cuts Could Come Soon

Uncategorized2 Comments

American rhetoric turns protectionist

Colin Henderson

President Obama is beginning to take on the mantle of an embattled and potentially protectionist leader with this comment in Yokohama today. My interest is less politics and more Banks. Such inward looking approaches will inevitably result in inward looking institutions within the US, especially those with government ownership, or essentially government protection. BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11748433i Addressing business executives in Yokohama, President Obama said the economic crisis had shown the limits of depending on US consumers and Asian exporters to drive growth. Continue reading American rhetoric turns protectionist

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Peer-to-peer lending gets a new regulatory regime in the US

Colin Henderson

A fascinating development in the US as a new regulator for peer-to-peer lending appears following vigorous efforts from Prosper to promote an even handed regulatory regime for both borrowers and lenders. Currently the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is the prime regulator, and a similar situation exists in Canada. The creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA) is apparently designed to protect consumers in a host of financial services from p2p lending to reverse mortgages. Certainly more to come on that, but interesting for peer-to-peer lending. Prosper Hails House Passage of Landmark Peer-to-Peer Lending Reforms “Once again, Representative Jackie … Continue reading Peer-to-peer lending gets a new regulatory regime in the US

Payments, SEPA, US

Non Cash Growth as a barometer of Payment Innovation

Colin Henderson

CapGemini have come out with their World Payments Report – 2009 [pdf 60 pages]. Lots of statistics, but the one that leapt out at me is this. Japan stands out as a growth leader, despite being a mature economy.   Certainly their growth potential is large given the traditional consumer cash economy, but I have to look at the North American lowly 5% and wonder that lack of innovation in payments is not a driver. Certainly there remains lots of cash transactions to convert to payments but nominal innovation in the works to migrate to electronic.  The report notes that cash … Continue reading Non Cash Growth as a barometer of Payment Innovation

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US antitrust is the devil

Colin Henderson

Fascinating insght into US antitrust thinking that is quite mind boggling.  They actually believe that the antitrust case against Microsoft promoted Google Chrome and Firefox!  This is a great example of reverse analysis thinking where the result rationalises the approach. Microsoft Internet Explorer became huge because it was better and faster than Netscape.  That was 1996.  Time passes and IE became known as slow.  Firefox emerged, followed by Chrome  I see no connection to antitrust stuff here. My Interview With Antitrust Expert Gary Reback: Google’s Looming Antitrust Issues | TechCrunch One interesting insight from the conversation: I ask Reback if … Continue reading US antitrust is the devil

Economy, US3 Comments

China and America economic future – Ferguson/ Fallows debate

Colin Henderson

A summary in NYT of the fascinating Ferguson/ Fallows debate at Aspen on the economic relationship between China and US. Ferguson: US and China are divorcing economically.  China will focus on internal consumption, not exports.  “Depreciation (of US $) is inevitable and the Chinese are working to end the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency.” Fallows: “…  doesn’t know what the future will hold, but he believes that Chinese officials still see the dollar as their least risky investment. Domestically, China will not turn democratic, but individual liberties will expand. He agreed that China and the U.S. will dominate … Continue reading China and America economic future – Ferguson/ Fallows debate

Canada, Economy, US3 Comments

Consumer mindsets in North America have shifted permanently with regard to finances

Colin Henderson

After my last post, I thought it better to follow up with some facts to support my contention that this economic recovery is L shaped in Canada and US.  This is not meant to be an economic projection, and I leave that to the professional economists.  However in terms of planning, banks ought to consider the high probability of a scenario where the reduction in economic activity will level off but hardly see growth in the near future.  This will be driven by consumer confidence and frankly their financial circumstances. If we go back to the root cause of the … Continue reading Consumer mindsets in North America have shifted permanently with regard to finances