Category: Diplomacy

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

The Coming Storm – book review review

Colin Henderson

https://www.amazon.ca/Coming-Storm-Conflict-Warnings-History-ebook/dp/B0F5PCC9ZX I came across this newish book on Franks site. Highly pertinent it covers the state of the world in geopolitical terms leading up to 1914 and WW1, then draws parallels on post Cold War leading up to today. Odd makes the point that we are on a precipice and it could go either way from unexpected events that burst our complacency bubble. Worth the read for today’s world wide geopolitical context. frankdiana.net/2026/05/07/the-coming-storm-why-history-is-warning-us-again/ Continue reading The Coming Storm – book review review

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 12 May 2026 · 6:00 EST · ~1,150 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single, intensifying thread: the US-Iran ceasefire is approaching collapse, with Brent oil back above $107, Trump meeting Xi in Beijing Thursday, and a UK political crisis adding a destabilising second signal. The clustering risk is energy shock persistence + NATO cohesion breakdown + an AI governance pivot in Washington — all moving simultaneously. 1. What Changed Iran ceasefire on “massive life support” — resumption of combat now the base scenarioTrump called Iran’s counter-proposal “garbage” after reading only part of it; said ceasefire is “unbelievably weak.” Iran’s proposal included asserting sovereignty over the Strait of … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 12 May 2026 · 6:00 EST · ~1,150 words

China, Diplomacy, Economy, Europe, Frontier_AI, Middle East, US, World Order

Morning Briefing — Monday, 11 May 2026 · 07:20 EST · ~1,190 words

Colin Henderson

The dominant theme today is managed ambiguity at the top of the global order. The US-Iran MOU process is the most active thread, moving faster than markets expected while remaining genuinely unresolved — Iranian factions divided, US leverage uncertain, Hormuz still choked. That negotiating limbo is directly driving the second dominant cluster: the Trump-Xi summit (May 14-15) now shaped primarily by Iran rather than trade or rare earths. Underneath both, European strategic independence is acquiring institutional weight this week — a Kiel Institute paper and fresh Bloomberg reporting on US troop withdrawals represent different facets of the same structural shift. … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, 11 May 2026 · 07:20 EST · ~1,190 words

Diplomacy, EU, Europe, Military, NATO
Colin Henderson

EU Article 42.7 mutual defence blueprint ordered Following the Iran war drone strike on a British airbase in Cyprus, EU leaders at a summit agreed the European Commission will prepare an operational blueprint for Article 42.7 — the EU’s mutual defence clause. Macron called it “not just words.” Cyprus, an EU but not NATO member, is particularly exposed and has been the most vocal advocate. New today: Formal Commission mandate agreed; blueprint process now underway. Why it matters: Article 42.7 is the functional basis for a European collective defence structure outside NATO’s US-dependent command chain. Operationalising it is a qualitative … Continue reading

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Saturday, 9 May 2026 · 7:00 EST · 1,105 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single thread: the US-Iran diplomatic clock, which is ticking toward an Iranian response on the peace proposal — expected today — while Hormuz clashes continue and Lebanon’s “ceasefire” collapses in real time. The risk clustering is unusual: a diplomatic opening and active kinetic exchanges are happening simultaneously, making both escalation and deal plausible within 24 hours. Markets are reading the diplomacy optimistically; analysts are more sceptical. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Iran’s response to US peace proposal due today; Hormuz clashes persist Iran is reviewing a US peace memo that would formally end … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, 9 May 2026 · 7:00 EST · 1,105 words

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 6 May 2026 · 7:00 EST · ~1,220 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing is defined by convergence: the Iran-China-US triangle reached a new inflection point this morning with Araghchi’s first Beijing visit since the war began, one week before Trump meets Xi. Against that backdrop, Russia violated Ukraine’s unilateral ceasefire within hours of its declaration, Trump has signalled Germany troop cuts will go well beyond 5,000, and the energy-economics pressure from the Hormuz blockade is entering a dangerous phase as Europe’s gas refill season opens. The three threads — Iran diplomacy, NATO fracture, and global economic stress — are now tightly interlocked. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Araghchi meets Wang … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 6 May 2026 · 7:00 EST · ~1,220 words

China, Diplomacy, US
Colin Henderson

The Real Role of a Trump-Xi Meeting” — The Diplomat, published ~May 1, 2026Argues the summit’s value is not in breakthroughs but in establishing boundaries under pressure — “managed competition.” Covers Beijing’s pre-summit moves (Announcement No. 21, rare earth leverage), US accusations of Chinese AI IP extraction, and why the Taiwan question remains China’s priority. Worth reading because it frames the May 14 summit correctly: not a reset, but a signalling exercise with Xi holding the stronger hand.The Diplomat The Real Role of a Trump-Xi Meeting The summit is unlikely to deliver decisive breakthroughs. Instead, its importance lies in how … Continue reading

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 5 May 2026 · EST · ~1,180 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single structural crisis moving on multiple fronts simultaneously: the Hormuz deadlock is now spilling into active military skirmishing while the diplomatic channel remains technically open. Simultaneously, the US-NATO relationship is fracturing publicly — not just rhetorically — with concrete troop and materiel signals. The Trump-Xi summit in nine days adds a third live variable. The day’s news clusters around an energy-and-security crisis that is now manifesting in economic data, alliance architecture, and great power triangulation. 1. Top Stories — What Changed 1. Project Freedom Day One: US Sinks Six Iranian Boats, UAE Hit CENTCOM … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 5 May 2026 · EST · ~1,180 words

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Monday, 4 May 2026 · 07:15 EST · ~1,310 words

Colin Henderson

Note addendum on late breaking China actions. Today’s briefing is dominated by a single high-risk inflection: the US launched “Project Freedom” in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, Iran declared it a ceasefire violation and threatened to attack American forces, and a tanker was struck by projectiles within hours of the announcement. Simultaneously, diplomatic signals from both sides remain alive — Iran is reviewing the US reply to its 14-point proposal — creating a classic dual-track moment where military and diplomatic clocks are running in opposite directions. The NATO fracture over Germany deepens in parallel, with reports that Spain and Italy … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, 4 May 2026 · 07:15 EST · ~1,310 words

Diplomacy

It’s a textbook case of what happens when coercive diplomacy is run through a single mercurial personality rather than institutional architecture.

Colin Henderson

Follow up to China defies post. Trump spent 65 days oscillating between “they haven’t paid a big enough price” on Saturday and “very positive discussions” on Sunday. That whipsaw signalling — repeated throughout the conflict — has had two compounding effects: It handed China its opening. Beijing read the vacillation correctly: Washington needs a deal for domestic reasons (gas at $4.45, War Powers deadline, GOP fractures, midterm optics) but can’t admit it. The Blocking Rules deployment is precisely calibrated to that weakness — increase Iranian economic resilience at the moment US leverage is already eroding, without firing a shot. It … Continue reading It’s a textbook case of what happens when coercive diplomacy is run through a single mercurial personality rather than institutional architecture.