US

America Is Exporting Bewilderment to the Rest of the World

Colin Henderson

 Summarize ​ Max HastingsAugust 2, 2026 at 2:45 AM EDT A more serviceable global partner?Photographer: China Pool/Getty Images AsiaPac A week or two back I shared a plane ride down from Scotland with a group of Americans who had obviously been golfing. Since one was sporting a MAGA baseball cap, it seemed a fair guess that they had been playing on Donald Trump’s course up there. They were a cheerful, ebulliently vocal party, and I am glad they had a nice time. But their body language gave no hint of sensitivity to the fact that we are living in a … Continue reading America Is Exporting Bewilderment to the Rest of the World

Europe, NATO, UK, Ukraine

SAG-U handover confirmed

Colin Henderson

NATO] — SAG-U handover confirmed• Politico (Aug 1): US relinquishing leadership of Security Assistance Group–Ukraine (Wiesbaden), transition up to a year, American deputy remains. Completes the pattern: Norfolk→UK, Naples→Italy, Brunssum→Germany/Poland, now SAG-U→TBD European/Canadian officer.• Paired signal: Trump walked back the Ankara pledge to license Ukrainian Patriot production, hours before the Aug 1 Kyiv barrage (1 of 27 ballistic missiles intercepted). Kyiv notes irreplaceable US satellite ISR, targeting, heavy airlift.• Assessment: the downstream-consequence frame strengthens on both axes simultaneously — command architecture transferring to Europe while US materiel reliability degrades. Watch which nation takes SAG-U command; a UK or German flag … Continue reading SAG-U handover confirmed

EU, Europe, Geopolitics, US

Pentagon transfers leadership of Ukraine assistance mission in Germany to another NATO member – Politico

Colin Henderson

Khrystyna Bondarieva ,  Roman Petrenko  — 1 August, 12:08 The Pentagon is stepping down from leading the Security Assistance Group-Ukraine (SAG-U), based in Germany, and will hand it over to another NATO member state. Source: Politico; European Pravda Details: According to a US official and three people familiar with the plan, command of SAG-U – which has played a central role in equipping and training Ukrainian troops since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion – will ultimately be taken over by another NATO member. This move means the US will no longer help shape what Ukraine’s future armed forces will look like. Advertisement: … Continue reading Pentagon transfers leadership of Ukraine assistance mission in Germany to another NATO member – Politico

research

Adapted with permission from Inside the Next Transition: Seeing Systemic Change Before Pathways Harden by Frank Diana.

Colin Henderson

SourceL Time piece based on exciting new book upcoming from Frank Diana. Can Studying Daily Life Help Us Envision the Future? Frank Diana Diana is a Futurist at Tata Consultancy Services. JUL 30, 2026 10:00 AM ET The morning begins before anyone is fully awake. One parent is packing lunches while the other is answering a work message from the kitchen counter. A child cannot find a shoe. The school app says the bus is delayed. A phone buzzes with a reminder about a prescription refill for an aging parent, followed by another message from the care aide asking whether … Continue reading Adapted with permission from Inside the Next Transition: Seeing Systemic Change Before Pathways Harden by Frank Diana.

briefing

Morning Briefing — Monday, August 3, 2026 · 7:15 AM EST · ~1,150 words

Colin Henderson

Introduction Today’s environment is dominated by a single hinge: US–Iran negotiations resume this afternoon after Trump called off what he described as the largest planned US military operation since WWII. Markets have priced the optimism — oil down sharply, equities firmer — but the Gaza disarmament roadmap, a heavy SpaceX event week, and a deepening AI/chip selloff mean risk is clustered across three of your standing frames simultaneously. The distinct feature of today: diplomacy and market scepticism are moving in opposite directions at once. 1. What changed Trump calls off Iran strike; talks resume Monday afternoonTrump cancelled a planned multi-day … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, August 3, 2026 · 7:15 AM EST · ~1,150 words

briefing

Morning Briefing — Sunday, August 2, 2026 · 9:05 AM EST · ~1,250 words

Colin Henderson

Introduction Two de-escalation tracks define the weekend: Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran as the Iran–Oman Hormuz mechanism talks inch forward, and the Gaza “Board of Peace” disarmament framework entered a two-week implementation ceasefire. Against that, Russia delivered one of its heaviest Kyiv strikes of the year while Washington signalled a structural pullback from European command roles — the risk clustering today is less about new escalation than about whether fragile frameworks hold and who fills the vacuums the US is leaving. Markets closed a decisive week in which the AI capex trade split into winners and losers on a … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Sunday, August 2, 2026 · 9:05 AM EST · ~1,250 words

briefing

Morning Briefing — Friday, July 31, 2026 · 09:00 EST · ~1,250 words

Colin Henderson

Introduction Two ceasefire architectures dominate the day: a Hamas disarmament roadmap announced by Trump’s Board of Peace that Israel has conspicuously not endorsed, and an Oman-brokered proposal to reopen Hormuz under shared management while the US strike pause holds a sixth day. Markets close a volatile month with a sharp risk-on reversal — Amazon’s earnings and a record day in Seoul repaired the damage from Wednesday’s Meta rout. The clustering is unusual: both geopolitical files and the AI trade sit at genuine inflection points simultaneously. 1. What changed ⚑ Hamas agrees to full disarmament roadmap; Israel stays silentTrump announced his … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, July 31, 2026 · 09:00 EST · ~1,250 words

AI_factories, Infrastructure, Innovation

Nebius publishes 2025 Sustainability Report, outlining blueprint for scaling responsibly

Colin Henderson

Share Sets out how Nebius is building resource efficiency into the expansion of its global AI cloud footprint toward gigawatts of capacity Average power usage effectiveness (PUE) of 1.25 across Nebius’s data center portfolio in 2025, ahead of the global industry average of 1.54 Expanding community engagement programs support STEM education, skilled-trades apprenticeships, and workforce development AMSTERDAM–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Nebius (Nasdaq: NBIS), the AI cloud company, today published its 2025 Sustainability Report, setting out a year of environmental performance data across its expanding global footprint and detailing its investment in the communities where it operates. As Nebius scales its AI cloud toward … Continue reading Nebius publishes 2025 Sustainability Report, outlining blueprint for scaling responsibly

briefing

Morning Briefing — Thursday, July 30, 2026 · 10:15 EST · ~1,250 words

Colin Henderson

Introduction The dominant frame today is re-escalation with geographic spread: the Friday-to-Tuesday combat pause is dead, and the war’s perimeter now touches Egypt, Kuwait, and Jordan in a single 48-hour window, with Saudi Arabia crossing from target to combatant. The second cluster is monetary-financial: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents for a hike collided with resurgent oil and an AI-capex credibility test from Microsoft and Meta, producing the worst equity day in months. What makes today distinct is the simultaneity — war-widening, stagflation signals, and AI-spend scepticism reinforcing each other rather than trading off. 1. What changed 1. Iran … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, July 30, 2026 · 10:15 EST · ~1,250 words

Geopolitics, Middle East, Saudi

Why the Saudis Attacked Iraq Despite Cordial Ties

Colin Henderson

 Source Bloomberg ​ Lisa BeyerJuly 29, 2026 at 2:42 PM EDTA general view of damaged structures at the site of a strike in Bartalla in the northern Iraqi Nineveh province on July 29.Photographer: Zaid Al-Obeidi/AFP/Getty Images A new line of fighting in the war in the Middle East opened up on July 28 when Saudi Arabia launched an attack on Iraq, with which the kingdom has generally cordial relations. The strike, carried out in conjunction with US forces, targeted Iranian-backed militants in Iraq who, the Saudis said, had fired drones at Saudi oil facilities two days in a row.  Who are the Iraqi … Continue reading Why the Saudis Attacked Iraq Despite Cordial Ties