Agents, AI1 Comment

Agentic AI: State of Play & Emerging Risks — May 2026

Colin Henderson

Here is result of research on Agentic State of play outlining currently understood risks which could develop into issues. In fact there are multiple indications of Agent AI deployments that will be cancelled due to the evolving landscape of risks. Financial Services in particular are seeing gaps in compliance and regulatory areas as protocols which assumed human employee engagement bump up against Agents which will act on what they observe, and have no way to act on what they cannot see. My take is that insufficient attention is being paid to formal and informal data linkages. Prepared for Splunk session … Continue reading Agentic AI: State of Play & Emerging Risks — May 2026

China, Diplomacy, Economy, Europe, Frontier_AI, Middle East, US, World OrderLeave a comment

Morning Briefing — Monday, 11 May 2026 · 07:20 EST · ~1,190 words

Colin Henderson

The dominant theme today is managed ambiguity at the top of the global order. The US-Iran MOU process is the most active thread, moving faster than markets expected while remaining genuinely unresolved — Iranian factions divided, US leverage uncertain, Hormuz still choked. That negotiating limbo is directly driving the second dominant cluster: the Trump-Xi summit (May 14-15) now shaped primarily by Iran rather than trade or rare earths. Underneath both, European strategic independence is acquiring institutional weight this week — a Kiel Institute paper and fresh Bloomberg reporting on US troop withdrawals represent different facets of the same structural shift. … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, 11 May 2026 · 07:20 EST · ~1,190 words

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The state of global AI diffusion in 2026

Colin Henderson

The state of global AI diffusion in 2026 May 7, 2026 | Juan Lavista Ferres – Chief Data Scientist, Microsoft Today we published our latest Global AI Diffusion Report. The global adoption of artificial intelligence continued to rise in the first quarter of 2026. During the quarter, AI usage increased by 1.5 percentage points from 16.3% to 17.8% of the world’s working age population. Intensity of use among economies with the highest rates of AI diffusion also increased, with 26 economies now exceeding 30% of the working age population using AI. At the top of Microsoft’s National AI Leaderboard, the UAE continued to … Continue reading The state of global AI diffusion in 2026

EU, Europe, NATOLeave a comment

European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it

Colin Henderson

This is the Kiel Institute paper which provides costing to achieve military autonomy that excludes US. This clear evidence that a new structure for Europe following the clear messaging from America, including most recent inclusion of European commentary in recent Security paper which refers to Europe as a terrorist breeding ground. This from a country which promotes guerrilla tactics against its own citizens based on race or political persuasion. European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it ⚑ A paper by five senior German defense economists and industry executives, published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, concludes … Continue reading European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it

Diplomacy, EU, Europe, Military, NATOLeave a comment
Colin Henderson

EU Article 42.7 mutual defence blueprint ordered Following the Iran war drone strike on a British airbase in Cyprus, EU leaders at a summit agreed the European Commission will prepare an operational blueprint for Article 42.7 — the EU’s mutual defence clause. Macron called it “not just words.” Cyprus, an EU but not NATO member, is particularly exposed and has been the most vocal advocate. Europe’s little-known mutual defence clause: Is it a NATO substitute? Several European leaders have called for a discussion on using the bloc’s own mutual assistance clause amid US tensions By Caolán Magee Published On 30 Apr … Continue reading

EU, EuropeLeave a comment

European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it

Colin Henderson

European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it ⚑ A paper by five senior German defense economists and industry executives, published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, concludes European military autonomy is achievable: €50B/year for a decade, €150–200B by 2030. Ten specific capability gaps identified, including command and control, drone mass production, deep strike, and a European Starlink equivalent. Continue reading European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it

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The pivot from payroll to compute is structural, not cyclical.

Colin Henderson

Bit Tech commits $725bn capex; simultaneously cuts headcount at scaleMeta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet have collectively signalled approximately $725 billion in capital expenditure for 2026 — up more than 75% year-over-year — almost entirely for data centres, custom chips, and AI infrastructure. Concurrently: Meta cutting 8,000 jobs in May, Amazon down ~30,000 roles, Microsoft offering voluntary buyouts to ~125,000 staff. • The pivot from payroll to compute is structural, not cyclical. • Source: Tech Startups, May 8 Continue reading The pivot from payroll to compute is structural, not cyclical.

Diplomacy, GeopoliticsLeave a comment

Morning Briefing — Saturday, 9 May 2026 · 7:00 EST · 1,105 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single thread: the US-Iran diplomatic clock, which is ticking toward an Iranian response on the peace proposal — expected today — while Hormuz clashes continue and Lebanon’s “ceasefire” collapses in real time. The risk clustering is unusual: a diplomatic opening and active kinetic exchanges are happening simultaneously, making both escalation and deal plausible within 24 hours. Markets are reading the diplomacy optimistically; analysts are more sceptical. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Iran’s response to US peace proposal due today; Hormuz clashes persist Iran is reviewing a US peace memo that would formally end … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, 9 May 2026 · 7:00 EST · 1,105 words

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Hantavirus – what you need to know

Colin Henderson

Prompt (Claude AI) Does hantavirus only occur in ships? Are there moreexamples in say buidlings with poor pest control Output No, hantavirus is not specific to ships at all. Ships are just one environment where it can occur. Hantavirus transmission happens wherever infected rodents (primarily deer mice, white-footed mice, and rats) are present and their droppings, urine, or nesting material become disturbed and aerosolized. Common settings where outbreaks have occurred: Notable outbreak examples: The key risk factor is disturbing enclosed, poorly ventilated spaces where rodents have been active — sweeping or vacuuming dried droppings is particularly dangerous. Ships fit that profile, but … Continue reading Hantavirus – what you need to know