Tag: Economy

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Saturday, May 16, 2026 · 8:00 EST · ~1,280 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing is dominated by two interlocking failures: the Trump-Xi summit produced no firm Hormuz commitment, and the US-Iran MOU process remains stuck on an unbridgeable enrichment gap. Both outcomes were confirmed within the same 24-hour window, leaving markets and energy traders with nothing to price optimism on. Russia’s largest aerial barrage since the invasion — launched during the Trump-Xi summit, almost certainly deliberate timing — adds a third simultaneous stress point. European strategic exposure to all three is now being explicitly named by EU leadership, not just hinted at. 1. What Changed Hormuz: seizures continue, Chinese ships exempted, CENTCOM … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, May 16, 2026 · 8:00 EST · ~1,280 words

Canada, Geopolitics, intel

Morning Briefing — Thursday, 12 March 2026

Colin Henderson

“What Changed” items, three new/emerging flags, five secondary items, and one long-form pick.A few things worth flagging from this morning:The Russia tactical integration item is the sharpest new development — moving from general targeting assistance to specific drone doctrine is qualitatively different and will require a Western coalition response of some kind. Watch for NATO statements later today.The France nuclear doctrine signal is the carry-forward item with the longest arc — if Macron moves from signalling to any kind of formalised burden-sharing arrangement, it restructures European security architecture in ways that will take years to fully register.On Canada-US trade — … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, 12 March 2026

AI

Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 11 March 2026

Colin Henderson

Toronto / ET | Generated ~6:00 AM ET Source my custom prompt, with all research from Claude.ai and sources noted. Here’s the summary of what’s driving today’s briefing: Dominant thread: The Hormuz crisis is deepening rather than resolving. Three more ships struck today (14 total), the IEA’s record reserve release failed to hold oil below $90, and the US destruction of 16 Iranian mine-layers is escalating the military arc rather than shortening it. Mojtaba Khamenei’s hardliner posture and the Dimona nuclear signal make the diplomatic off-ramp narrow. The two structural flags I’ve carried forward: France’s nuclear deterrence — Rutte’s NATO endorsement this … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 11 March 2026

Geopolitics

War in the Middle East takes hold of the global economy

Colin Henderson

Venezuela, Greenland, tariffs, the Supreme Court, and now fresh instability in the Middle East. 2026 has been developing at warp speed so far, and it’s hard to keep up. Still, in this fast-moving environment, questions are – understandably – arising over what the economic implications of the US-Israeli war with Iran will be. The honest answer would be a typical economist’s response: it all depends. It all depends on how long the war will last, whether some semblance of political stability can emerge in Iran, and, most importantly, how long the Strait of Hormuz will be disrupted.  In our base … Continue reading War in the Middle East takes hold of the global economy

AI, AI_research, Economics

The paper “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish (August 2025)

Colin Henderson

Summary of Key Argument The core thesis of the paper is that macro-financial indicators—specifically, long-term real interest rates—can serve as a market-based “outside view” for forecasting the likelihood and timing of transformative AI (TAI, roughly equivalent to AGI or “superintelligence”) development. The mechanism underpinning this association is straightforward economic theory: If TAI is expected to accelerate economic growth drastically (e.g., global GDP growth > 30% per year), long-run real interest rates should rise sharply due to diminishing marginal utility of future consumption. If TAI is expected to pose an existential risk (unaligned AI), the marginal value of future consumption could … Continue reading The paper “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish (August 2025)

Economy, Growth, US

Monetary Policy 5 Yr Fed Framework Review

Colin Henderson

August 22, 2025 Chair Jerome H. Powell At “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy,” an economic symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, WyomingWatch Live Over the course of this year, the U.S. economy has shown resilience in a context of sweeping changes in economic policy. In terms of the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, the labor market remains near maximum employment, and inflation, though still somewhat elevated, has come down a great deal from its post-pandemic highs. At the same time, the balance of risks appears to be shifting. In my remarks today, … Continue reading Monetary Policy 5 Yr Fed Framework Review

Economics, Economy, Growth

Federal Reserve Consensus Review – August 2025

Colin Henderson

Source: perplexity.ai Key Outcomes of the 2025 Policy Framework Review The framework removed language about the effective lower bound (ELB), focusing instead on promoting maximum employment and stable prices under flexible economic conditions. The “makeup” inflation strategy introduced in 2020 (aiming for intentional moderate inflation overshoot) was abandoned. The Committee reaffirmed its commitment to flexible inflation targeting. Powell emphasized that anchored inflation expectations were essential in bringing inflation down without sharply increasing unemployment, and the revised statement stresses maintaining well-anchored long-term inflation expectations. No specific numerical employment target will be set, reaffirming that maximum employment levels fluctuate for reasons unrelated … Continue reading Federal Reserve Consensus Review – August 2025

AI, Business Models, Innovation, productivity

Blackrock Investment themes 2025

Colin Henderson

In listening to Blackrock Jay Jacobs Head of ETF he mentioned the investment themes Blackrock has identified in the context of re-industrialisation of the economy. See below for detail, but the core three are: Mega Force Description & Investment Implications Demographic Divergence Aging populations in developed economies are expected to constrain growth and productivity, while emerging markets with younger populations and expanding middle classes may benefit from higher growth potential[3][5]. Digital Disruption & AI The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence and digital technologies is transforming productivity, business models, and entire industries. BlackRock sees AI as a foundational driver of future … Continue reading Blackrock Investment themes 2025

productivity, Profitability, regulation

StableCoin needs clear definition similar to Bretton Woods

Colin Henderson

The debate between USDC exemplified by Circle and USDT associated with Tether brings many of the realities of crypto into focus. The perennial debate has been whether Bitcoin is an asset class lke Gold or Silver or is it a useful alternative currency to fiat. Bankwatch Research Research and background on USDC and USDT. The recent Compass Point report made two points, and thus fails as an analytical support document: 1. Market Penetration – USDT has that 2. Additional cost structure for USDC (Circle ) associated with regulatry requirements similar to banking, will hinder profitability If we explore the second … Continue reading StableCoin needs clear definition similar to Bretton Woods

Canada, Risk, US1 Comment

Financial Accountability Officer is an Officer of the Legistlative Assembly of Ontario

Colin Henderson

The Potential Impacts of US Tariffs on the Ontario Economy Topics: Economy Employment and Labour Markets Publish date: April 30, 2025 ISBN 978-1-4868-9003-3 This report examines Ontario’s trade relationship with the United States (US) and estimates the potential impacts of US tariffs on Ontario’s exports, imports, GDP, employment and inflation. PDF Media Release Table of Contents Summary Introduction Ontario’s Trade with the United States The Potential Impact of US Tariffs on Ontario’s Economy Uncertainty and Range of Potential Impacts Appendix: Tariff Scenario Assumptions Appendix: Sector Classification of Industries Footnotes SummaryThis report examines Ontario’s trade relationship with the United States and … Continue reading Financial Accountability Officer is an Officer of the Legistlative Assembly of Ontario