Tag: Economy

Economy

Cabinet Office Pegs Global Economic Growth At Just 1% In 2010

Colin Henderson

I have read enough economic forecasts over the last 2 years to realise that this forecast from the Japanese government is the first time that government has recognised the obvious that the situation we are in is not going to resolve quickly. I am a firm believer in this being an L shaped recovery, and this report points in that direction.  There is just too much lag built into the shift we have experienced.  With such a dramatic and permanent drop in asset values we have seen, the natural deleveraging impact will take years to work through the system. Cabinet … Continue reading Cabinet Office Pegs Global Economic Growth At Just 1% In 2010

Economy

Worries about government debt load in Japan

Colin Henderson

Following on the testimony from US Bernanke today, similar moves in Japan, the next largest world economy (for the moment), to reduce debt which remains at a world leading high. Japan’s long-term public debt, which is already the largest of any industrialized nation, is projected to reach 168 percent of GDP at the end of March 2010, according to the ministry. … Concerning when to achieve a surplus in the primary balance, many members of the Aso-chaired panel believe it may take about 10 years, based on the latest economic growth and revenue projections, according to government officials.At the next … Continue reading Worries about government debt load in Japan

Economy, US5 Comments

Bernanke is concerned about budget deficits

Colin Henderson

Fed Chairman Bernanke picks his words carefully here as the US treads that line between economic recovery and much higher interest rates which would produce other unintended consequences such as stifling growth, currency value shifts or inflation. Bernanke calls for action on deficits | FT Ben Bernanke on Wednesday called on Congress to take action now to bring down long term US budget deficits, warning that the bond market was concerned about rising US government debt. The Federal Reserve chairman said the recent increases in bond yields “appear to reflect concern about large federal deficits” as well as improved optimism … Continue reading Bernanke is concerned about budget deficits

Economy, US1 Comment

No consumer driven economy in US | Geithner in China

Colin Henderson

Some important messages within Geithners speech in China today that paint a very different next few years compared to the last 10, and as the ‘G2’ move to manage a transition the American economy into one that is very different, yet stable.  And all this to be managed against the backdrop of  the fear of eventual inflation, which would devalue foreign holdings in US T-Bills, something China is acutely aware of. These macro factors will play a large role in US banks and credit unions strategy design for the next 5 years. no consumer purchase driven economy in US – … Continue reading No consumer driven economy in US | Geithner in China

Canada, Economy

Countries that are least affected by the Economic Crisis

Colin Henderson

An interesting survey of business reaction to the crisis, and which countries are least impacted.  Full ranking follows the map.  This explains a lot in terms of peoples reactions. Time will tell if this reaction remains constant, and what were the contributors to and rivers of this reaction. Countries that are Least Affected by Recession | digital inspiration The data is based on the results of a business confidence survey that was done on international business people of 24 nations to identify which countries they believe are surviving the crisis the best. Researched by Nobuyo Henderson Continue reading Countries that are least affected by the Economic Crisis

Uncategorized

California is in trouble – hard to imagine what that means

Colin Henderson

Could we see the state of California go under … ? California – a nightmare vision of the future | FT The Californian budget crisis is so severe that all public employees are having to take pay cuts. Public-health services are under serious threat, and there is talk of pushing Aids patients and the terminally-ill out onto the streets. It has proved impossible to raise taxes any further and the bond markets are in revolt. California is looking to Washington for help. But with the federal government running budget deficits of 12% of GDP, and the federal debt pushing up … Continue reading California is in trouble – hard to imagine what that means

UK2 Comments

“Northern Rock risk revealed in 2004” | FT

Colin Henderson

It appears the weakness in the UK banks that showed first when the crisis hit, were foretold 5 years ago in a BoE simulation. Northern Rock risk revealed in 2004 | FT Banking regulators identified Northern Rock as the weak link in Britain’s banking system during secret “war games” held as long ago as 2004, the Financial Times has learned. The risk simulation planning, conducted by the Financial Services Authority, the Bank of England and the Treasury, made clear the systemic risks posed by Northern Rock’s business model, and its domino effect on HBOS, then the UK’s largest mortgage lender. Continue reading “Northern Rock risk revealed in 2004” | FT

Japan

Bank of Japan announces improvement in Japanese economy

Colin Henderson

In a surprising statement Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa announces improvements in the Japanese economy.  It is surprising following several years of slow economy even before the economic crisis we are now in.  Click through for that, and a review of several economies including Canada. Japan raises outlook | Reuters WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Japan raised its economic outlook for the first time in three years on Monday, and an important measure of German business sentiment rose in May, in further signs the worst of the global recession may be over. Research and guest comments by Nobuyo Henderson: I look … Continue reading Bank of Japan announces improvement in Japanese economy

Economy, Innovation

The Aftermath of Financial Crises | study

Colin Henderson

A short and useful paper offerring some points that help to frame the next few years for strategic planning purposes.  This to be read of course in the context of politicians preaching ‘road to recovery’ which leaves the uninformed with the view that we will get over this blip and back to normal. I prefer to think of this as a shift that will profoundly change things for the next few years, with some good and some not so good elements in that shift.  It may be good that the banking industry will be shaken up, and out of that … Continue reading The Aftermath of Financial Crises | study

Economy, Japan

How much do we understand the meaning of less GDP now and forseeable future

Colin Henderson

The fall in GDP for Japan appears nothing short of catastrophic, yet on a visit there last week by Nobuyo, the effects of this change are not obvious to the everyday Japanese person. One change that was noticeable in Tokyo is less foreigners (Gaizin).  The area around Roppongi and Azabajuban is normally where one can expect to see many western faces in the restaurants and bars.  No more.  Companies such as Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and AIG as well as numerous other western financial services companies had representation in Japan, however that is quickly shifting. This still does not appear … Continue reading How much do we understand the meaning of less GDP now and forseeable future