Category: EU

EU, Europe, NATO

European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it

Colin Henderson

This is the Kiel Institute paper which provides costing to achieve military autonomy that excludes US. This clear evidence that a new structure for Europe following the clear messaging from America, including most recent inclusion of European commentary in recent Security paper which refers to Europe as a terrorist breeding ground. This from a country which promotes guerrilla tactics against its own citizens based on race or political persuasion. European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it ⚑ A paper by five senior German defense economists and industry executives, published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, concludes … Continue reading European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it

Diplomacy, EU, Europe, Military, NATO
Colin Henderson

EU Article 42.7 mutual defence blueprint ordered Following the Iran war drone strike on a British airbase in Cyprus, EU leaders at a summit agreed the European Commission will prepare an operational blueprint for Article 42.7 — the EU’s mutual defence clause. Macron called it “not just words.” Cyprus, an EU but not NATO member, is particularly exposed and has been the most vocal advocate. Europe’s little-known mutual defence clause: Is it a NATO substitute? Several European leaders have called for a discussion on using the bloc’s own mutual assistance clause amid US tensions By Caolán Magee Published On 30 Apr … Continue reading

EU, Europe

European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it

Colin Henderson

European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it ⚑ A paper by five senior German defense economists and industry executives, published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, concludes European military autonomy is achievable: €50B/year for a decade, €150–200B by 2030. Ten specific capability gaps identified, including command and control, drone mass production, deep strike, and a European Starlink equivalent. Continue reading European defense autonomy: Kiel Institute puts a price on it

EU, NATO

Hegseth: “Get in a boat”

Colin Henderson

Hegseth: “Get in a boat” — US makes Hormuz formally Europe’s problem Hegseth stated publicly that Europe “needs the Strait of Hormuz much more than we do” and should stop “having fancy conferences” and get in a boat. The White House reportedly circulated a “naughty and nice” list of NATO members — Israel, Poland, the Baltics, and increasingly Germany on the preferred side; Spain and the UK on the punitive side. New today: Hegseth framing now confirmed as official US policy posture, not off-script; Pentagon email gives it teeth. Why it matters: A direct inversion of collective defence logic — … Continue reading Hegseth: “Get in a boat”

EU, Military, NATO

Europe Defense Strategy 2026: EU Moves Toward Independent Security

Colin Henderson

EU military independence 2026 EU military independence 2026 This article breaks down what the EU’s rearmament drive actually involves, why it is happening now, and what it means for NATO, global stability, and the future of the Western alliance. EU military independence 2026 Europe is undergoing its most significant military transformation since the end of the Cold War. In April 2026, the European Union is actively advancing its push for EU military independence, a sweeping strategic shift designed to reduce the continent’s reliance on the United States and NATO for its core security needs. Driven by geopolitical turbulence  from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine … Continue reading Europe Defense Strategy 2026: EU Moves Toward Independent Security

Diplomacy, EU

Europe should fill the diplomatic vacuum on Iran

Colin Henderson

Important evolving shift proposed for EU to assume control of Iran diplomacy Source: EUISS (originally Dutch) https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/commentary/europe-should-fill-diplomatic-vacuum-iran 14 April 2026 The negotiations between the United States and Iran have failed. That is hardly surprising. The mistrust runs too deep, and Trump has already shown how his diplomacy works: first talks, then bombs, then talks again, all the while keeping up the threats. That is no way to build trust and it is why the Americans are now trapped in a war they cannot seem to end. In Washington, the illusion persists that if only enough pressure is brought to bear … Continue reading Europe should fill the diplomatic vacuum on Iran

AI, Business Models, Canada, EU, Geopolitics, NATO, unbanked, US

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 14, 2026 · 07:51 EST · 1,285 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single cascading event: the US naval blockade of Iranian ports that took effect at 10:00 AM EDT Monday, immediately after the collapse of the Islamabad ceasefire talks. The blockade has set off simultaneous shocks across energy markets, NATO unity, and Gulf security. A partial relief signal arrived this morning — Trump says Iran has “called” and wants a deal — creating a whipsaw between escalation and diplomatic revival that will define the day’s market and political moves. Hungary’s watershed election result, landing Sunday, adds a structurally significant European political shift to the mix. 1. … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 14, 2026 · 07:51 EST · 1,285 words

Diplomacy, EU, Geopolitics

The Europe Brief

Colin Henderson

April 14, 2026 Turkey pushes for larger role in Europe’s defense as Trump questions NATO Shutting out Ankara from EU defense initiatives would cause more damage than the U.S. pulling troops from the continent, warned Turkey’s defense minister. Read More France mulls fallback tank for delayed MGCS program in defense update The delay for the MGCS project is due to Germany deciding to start a program for new Leopard 3 tanks, according to Vautrin. Read More Italian government shakes up Leonardo leadership, replacing Cingolani as CEO Some sources said Cingolani’s focus on non-kinetic priorities may have led to the surprise move, with … Continue reading The Europe Brief

Business Models, Canada, Economy, EU, Geopolitics, Military, NATO

EU Air and Space Shield

Colin Henderson

Some background to something I am watching and which will structurally change risk assessment and global finance. https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/document/download/9db42c04-15c2-42e1-8364-60afb0073e68_en?filename=Joint-Communication%20_Defence-Readiness-Roadmap-2030.pdf https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/document/download/b97e2ffb-4008-463d-bae7-e0ef519847af_en?filename=15102025_Readiness2030_FactsheetSPP_0.pdf The CWP 2026 foresees a European Space Shield Action Plan for Q2 2026. According to the European Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030, the European Space Shield is intended to reinforce the defence capabilities of the Member States and to secure the resilience and protection of space assets and services in response to an increasingly hostile threat environment. It forms part of the broader effort to achieve defence readiness by 2030 through the integration of national and commercial space assets with support from existing … Continue reading EU Air and Space Shield

Economy, EU, Geopolitics, IMF, UK, US

UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL IMBALANCES

Colin Henderson

#IMF March 3, 2026 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY After more than a decade of steady decline, global imbalances have widened in they reflect economic fundamentals and desirable policies, the buildup and persistence recent years. While current account surpluses and deficits can be appropriate when of large imbalances raise concerns when they are driven by policy distortions and unwind in a disorderly manner. The expansion of industrial policies and the rise in trade restrictions—often motivated by imbalances themselves—has intensified the debate on the causes and consequences of global imbalances, despite limited analytical and empirical clarity on how both policies affect the current account. … Continue reading UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL IMBALANCES