Category: EU

AI, Business Models, Canada, EU, Geopolitics, NATO, unbanked, US

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 14, 2026 · 07:51 EST · 1,285 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single cascading event: the US naval blockade of Iranian ports that took effect at 10:00 AM EDT Monday, immediately after the collapse of the Islamabad ceasefire talks. The blockade has set off simultaneous shocks across energy markets, NATO unity, and Gulf security. A partial relief signal arrived this morning — Trump says Iran has “called” and wants a deal — creating a whipsaw between escalation and diplomatic revival that will define the day’s market and political moves. Hungary’s watershed election result, landing Sunday, adds a structurally significant European political shift to the mix. 1. … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 14, 2026 · 07:51 EST · 1,285 words

Diplomacy, EU, Geopolitics

The Europe Brief

Colin Henderson

April 14, 2026 Turkey pushes for larger role in Europe’s defense as Trump questions NATO Shutting out Ankara from EU defense initiatives would cause more damage than the U.S. pulling troops from the continent, warned Turkey’s defense minister. Read More France mulls fallback tank for delayed MGCS program in defense update The delay for the MGCS project is due to Germany deciding to start a program for new Leopard 3 tanks, according to Vautrin. Read More Italian government shakes up Leonardo leadership, replacing Cingolani as CEO Some sources said Cingolani’s focus on non-kinetic priorities may have led to the surprise move, with … Continue reading The Europe Brief

Business Models, Canada, Economy, EU, Geopolitics, Military, NATO

EU Air and Space Shield

Colin Henderson

Some background to something I am watching and which will structurally change risk assessment and global finance. https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/document/download/9db42c04-15c2-42e1-8364-60afb0073e68_en?filename=Joint-Communication%20_Defence-Readiness-Roadmap-2030.pdf https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/document/download/b97e2ffb-4008-463d-bae7-e0ef519847af_en?filename=15102025_Readiness2030_FactsheetSPP_0.pdf The CWP 2026 foresees a European Space Shield Action Plan for Q2 2026. According to the European Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030, the European Space Shield is intended to reinforce the defence capabilities of the Member States and to secure the resilience and protection of space assets and services in response to an increasingly hostile threat environment. It forms part of the broader effort to achieve defence readiness by 2030 through the integration of national and commercial space assets with support from existing … Continue reading EU Air and Space Shield

Economy, EU, Geopolitics, IMF, UK, US

UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL IMBALANCES

Colin Henderson

#IMF March 3, 2026 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY After more than a decade of steady decline, global imbalances have widened in they reflect economic fundamentals and desirable policies, the buildup and persistence recent years. While current account surpluses and deficits can be appropriate when of large imbalances raise concerns when they are driven by policy distortions and unwind in a disorderly manner. The expansion of industrial policies and the rise in trade restrictions—often motivated by imbalances themselves—has intensified the debate on the causes and consequences of global imbalances, despite limited analytical and empirical clarity on how both policies affect the current account. … Continue reading UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL IMBALANCES

Business Models, China, Economics, EU, Geopolitics, US

Iran Offers Europe a Hormuz Lifeline — and the Price Could Be the Dollar

Colin Henderson

“Iran Offers Europe a Hormuz Lifeline — and the Price Could Be the Dollar” — IBTimes UK, April 4, 2026 https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/iran-strait-hormuz-transit-negotiations-1790190 Worth reading because it connects the immediate Hormuz transit negotiation to the structural BRICS-dollar question: non-dollar energy settlement mechanisms, the US national debt crossing $39 trillion mid-war, and the emerging pattern of European nations negotiating separately with Iran. One of the cleaner structural pieces published this week amid a lot of operational noise. ———————————————- Iran’s proposal to negotiate transit access through the Strait of Hormuz could reshape global energy dynamics and challenge the petrodollar system. Bernadette B. TixonPublished 04 April … Continue reading Iran Offers Europe a Hormuz Lifeline — and the Price Could Be the Dollar

EU, intel

EU Pledges Technical and Financial Aid to Restore Druzhba Pipeline

Colin Henderson

Wed, 03/18/2026 – 08:01https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/eu-pledges-technical-and-financial-aid-restore-druzhba-pipelineEuropean Union leaders announced Tuesday that the bloc will provide technical and financial assistance to Ukraine to help restore oil flow through a section of the Druzhba pipeline running through Ukraine. Oil shipments through the pipeline were halted following a series of Russian missile strikes on the critical energy infrastructure in January, severing crude oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia. In a joint statement, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel condemned the Jan. 27 attacks, which hit key nodes of the transit network. The disruption has left Central European nations … Continue reading EU Pledges Technical and Financial Aid to Restore Druzhba Pipeline

Canada, EU, UK

Europe update – Bloomberg

Colin Henderson

#geopolitics #risk President Donald Trump issued a direct threat to Iran, saying he’d hold the regime responsible for future attacks on shipping in the Suez Canal and southern Red Sea by Houthi rebels. His threat of retaliation against Tehran ratchets up the stakes even more after he authorized military strikes over the weekend on the group. The Houthi health ministry said 53 people were killed. Successive US administrations have accused Iran of supplying training, expertise and weapons to the Houthis, but taking on Iran directly would carry a fresh set of risks. Trump’s director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, said that other countries should … Continue reading Europe update – Bloomberg

Economy, EU, Geopolitics

Germany’s Economy Was Once the Envy of Europe. Not Anymore

Colin Henderson

This from NY Times confirms we are collectively in a state of chaos in terms of ‘world order’. In this blog one of my primary focus is on business and banking risk. Canada is a classic forerunner to what we see in Germany in today’s election. There was a time where my primary focus was bad actors and criminal elements including bad actor governments. The notion of risk has moved inward and banks must take care of their own risk management and deploy their own mitigation factors. That means isolating and understanding risks to their bank and taking arbitrary actions … Continue reading Germany’s Economy Was Once the Envy of Europe. Not Anymore

EU

EU Draghi Report on competitiveness with China and US

Colin Henderson

commission.europa.eu/document/download/97e481fd-2dc3-412d-be4c-f152a8232961_en EU competitiveness: Looking ahead Today, Europe stands united in its pursuit of inclusive economic growth, focusing on  sustainable competitiveness economic security open strategic autonomy fair competition They all serve as pillars of prosperity.  The vision that drives Europe forward is to create conditions where businesses thrive, the environment is protected, and everyone has an equal chance at success. Sustainable competitiveness should make sure businesses are productive and environmentally friendly. Economic security ensures that our economy can handle challenges and protect jobs. With open strategic autonomy, Europe is not just open for business; but is shaping a better, fairer world. … Continue reading EU Draghi Report on competitiveness with China and US