Category: Geopolitics

China, Geopolitics, intelLeave a comment

MI5 espionage alert issued on November 17, 2025

Colin Henderson

The MI5 espionage alert issued on November 17, 2025, is based on intelligence findings that Chinese Ministry of State Security (MSS) officers are actively using recruitment professionals and professional networking platforms to target individuals with access to sensitive UK governmental information.[1] Intelligence Basis and Methodology MI5’s assessment identified specific operational tactics employed by Chinese intelligence services, including the naming of two recruitment professionals—Amanda Qiu, chief executive of BR-YR Executive Search, and Shirly Shen, co-founder of the Internship Union—whom the Security Service determined were being utilized by the MSS to “conduct outreach at scale” on behalf of Chinese intelligence. The intelligence … Continue reading MI5 espionage alert issued on November 17, 2025

AI, Geopolitics

Here is a formal, evidence-based summary of how credible news sources are interpreting the proposed Europe–US–UK security guarantee for Ukraine, and its likely consequences for military escalation if Russian attacks continue.

Colin Henderson

Source Perplexity Nature of the Security Guarantee Interpretation by News Sources Likelihood of Military Action If Russia Continues Bombing Conclusion Aspect Current Interpretation Guarantee Type NATO-style, outside formal NATO; details pending Key Parties US, UK, Europe (non-NATO, “coalition of the willing”) Russian Position Reportedly accepted limited, Article 5-like guarantee in talks Likelihood of Military Action Low without further escalation or formal agreement trigger Main Deterrence Political/military support, non-automatic (not full NATO Article 5) This reflects prevailing interpretations among leading Western news and analysis outlets as of August 2025. Sources[1] Putin agrees that US, EU could offer NATO-style security … https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-41688930.html%5B2%5D … Continue reading Here is a formal, evidence-based summary of how credible news sources are interpreting the proposed Europe–US–UK security guarantee for Ukraine, and its likely consequences for military escalation if Russian attacks continue.

Geopolitics, Military

Inside China’s dangerous nuclear game

Colin Henderson

This article is part of Engelsberg Ideas’ latest series, ‘The Nuclear World Transformed’, in which our writers explore the history and current state of the global nuclear landscape, and how it is being reshaped by a new age of great-power competition.  Between 1990 and 2001 something happened in China that is unthinkable in today’s tense world. In short, an American wandered through the Chinese nuclear archipelago and came out to tell the tale. It sounds like a novel but it is a lesson in game theory and it is pure fact. The American was the director of the Technical Intelligence Division … Continue reading Inside China’s dangerous nuclear game

Economics, Economy, Geopolitics, US

US foreign trade barriers (linked 400 pages~)

Colin Henderson

US administration issued a rambling document with a multitude of ‘trade barriers’. “Where sufficient data exist, an approximate impact of tariffs on U.S. exports can be derived by obtaining estimates of supply and demand price elasticities in the importing country and in the United States. Typically, the U.S. share of imports is assumed constant. When no calculated price elasticities are available, reasonable postulated values are used. The resulting estimate of lost U.S. exports is approximate, depends on the assumed elasticities, and does not necessarily reflect changes in trade patterns with third countries. Similar procedures are followed to estimate the impact … Continue reading US foreign trade barriers (linked 400 pages~)

banking, Economics, Geopolitics, Innovation, Risk, Social Theory

US Tariffs Set to Make world economic and military History

Colin Henderson

It is worth capturing this moment. It has the potential to be elevated to a moment in world economic history in the same vein as Bretton Woods, World Trade Organization, United Nations, and many other bedrock areas that preceded and followed WWII. The broad perspective was to encourage World stability in economic terms and those tools were designed to create a global platform of stability that would make WWxx things of the past. Here we are 80 years later and the flaws in those tools with their commensurate inability to adapt have created a global world of bad actors yet … Continue reading US Tariffs Set to Make world economic and military History

Cybersecurity, Geopolitics

Update from Sifted on Ukraine impacts

Colin Henderson

Sifted reports on start ups in Ukraine and Eastern Europe three years on and the threat and startup environment. —- —- Three years of war in Europe Good morning Colin, Today marks the third anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, and while the US and Russia remain focused on finding solutions that suit them, the conflict looks set to continue a while longer. A year on from war breaking out, Sifted spoke to several startups and operators who either tried to keep their companies running or shifted from coding to producing military equipment. Three years on, Sifted once again interviewed Ukrainian founders to … Continue reading Update from Sifted on Ukraine impacts

Economy, EU, Geopolitics

Germany’s Economy Was Once the Envy of Europe. Not Anymore

Colin Henderson

This from NY Times confirms we are collectively in a state of chaos in terms of ‘world order’. In this blog one of my primary focus is on business and banking risk. Canada is a classic forerunner to what we see in Germany in today’s election. There was a time where my primary focus was bad actors and criminal elements including bad actor governments. The notion of risk has moved inward and banks must take care of their own risk management and deploy their own mitigation factors. That means isolating and understanding risks to their bank and taking arbitrary actions … Continue reading Germany’s Economy Was Once the Envy of Europe. Not Anymore

Geopolitics

Rubiks Cube of Global Security – Davos 2025

Colin Henderson

Foreign Affairs at World Economic Forum 2025 Rubiks Cube of Global Security – Davos 2025 The global security landscape has deteriorated sharply in the past decade, with nearly 15% of the world’s population now living in conflict-affected areas. As these conflicts combine with climate and technological risks, as well as the re-emergence of threats of nuclear proliferation, what can leaders do to stem the breakdown of longstanding security norms and institutions and bolster long-term comprehensive collective security? Speakers: This session was developed as a collaboration between the World Economic Forum and Foreign Affairs. Continue reading Rubiks Cube of Global Security – Davos 2025

Climate, Economics, Geopolitics

Bloomberg highlights 2024

Colin Henderson

In a world where authoritarianism and war are on the march, the fatalists have retreated, shrugging their shoulders in the knowledge that the climate crisis will probably moot everything else. And 2024 was certainly their year. The past 12 months have seen a steady drumbeat of unsuccessful climate negotiations where nations couldn’t put long-term survival ahead of short-term benefit. Talks to halt plastic pollution, protect biodiversity and end desertification all failed. A deal at the COP29 summit left developing nations furious with the amount of money agreed upon to help them battle global warming—and the accord even avoided mentioning the need to move away from fossil fuels. Meanwhile, humanity is burning … Continue reading Bloomberg highlights 2024