Category: Geopolitics

Geopolitics

War in the Middle East takes hold of the global economy

Colin Henderson

Venezuela, Greenland, tariffs, the Supreme Court, and now fresh instability in the Middle East. 2026 has been developing at warp speed so far, and it’s hard to keep up. Still, in this fast-moving environment, questions are – understandably – arising over what the economic implications of the US-Israeli war with Iran will be. The honest answer would be a typical economist’s response: it all depends. It all depends on how long the war will last, whether some semblance of political stability can emerge in Iran, and, most importantly, how long the Strait of Hormuz will be disrupted.  In our base … Continue reading War in the Middle East takes hold of the global economy

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Monday, 9 March 2026

Colin Henderson

Anchored to America/Toronto time | Format: delta-focused 1. What Changed 🔴 INFLECTION POINT FLAG — Iran Names Hardline Successor: Mojtaba Khamenei Appointed Supreme Leader Oil Smashes Through $100/bbl; G7 Finance Ministers Convene Oslo: U.S. Embassy Struck by Incendiary Device — Iran Link Probed Canada-U.S. Trade Talks Resume After Five-Month Freeze 🔴 INFLECTION POINT FLAG — France Expands Nuclear Arsenal, Extends Deterrence to European Allies EU Digital Omnibus Advances — GDPR Weakened for AI Training Markets: Oil Shock Compresses Rate-Cut Expectations 2. New & Emerging Norway: Ayatollah Video Posted to Google Maps at Time of BlastA social media and open-source thread … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, 9 March 2026

Diplomacy, Economy, Geopolitics

# Morning Briefing — Sunday, 8 March 2026

Colin Henderson

America/Toronto time | ~1,200 words 1. What Changed Iran War Day 9: Oil infrastructure now targeted, escalation intensifies US and Israeli strikes hit Tehran oil storage depots and refining facilities for the first time overnight — the first deliberate strikes on civil industrial infrastructure in the conflict. Iran retaliated with fresh missile salvos toward Israel and Gulf states. Trump has signalled a further escalation wave this weekend and says the war ends only when Iran’s leadership “cry uncle.” ⚠️ Civilisational inflection point flag: Day 9 confirms this is no longer a limited strike campaign — it is an active war … Continue reading # Morning Briefing — Sunday, 8 March 2026

China, Geopolitics, intel

MI5 espionage alert issued on November 17, 2025

Colin Henderson

The MI5 espionage alert issued on November 17, 2025, is based on intelligence findings that Chinese Ministry of State Security (MSS) officers are actively using recruitment professionals and professional networking platforms to target individuals with access to sensitive UK governmental information.[1] Intelligence Basis and Methodology MI5’s assessment identified specific operational tactics employed by Chinese intelligence services, including the naming of two recruitment professionals—Amanda Qiu, chief executive of BR-YR Executive Search, and Shirly Shen, co-founder of the Internship Union—whom the Security Service determined were being utilized by the MSS to “conduct outreach at scale” on behalf of Chinese intelligence. The intelligence … Continue reading MI5 espionage alert issued on November 17, 2025

AI, Geopolitics

Here is a formal, evidence-based summary of how credible news sources are interpreting the proposed Europe–US–UK security guarantee for Ukraine, and its likely consequences for military escalation if Russian attacks continue.

Colin Henderson

Source Perplexity Nature of the Security Guarantee Interpretation by News Sources Likelihood of Military Action If Russia Continues Bombing Conclusion Aspect Current Interpretation Guarantee Type NATO-style, outside formal NATO; details pending Key Parties US, UK, Europe (non-NATO, “coalition of the willing”) Russian Position Reportedly accepted limited, Article 5-like guarantee in talks Likelihood of Military Action Low without further escalation or formal agreement trigger Main Deterrence Political/military support, non-automatic (not full NATO Article 5) This reflects prevailing interpretations among leading Western news and analysis outlets as of August 2025. Sources[1] Putin agrees that US, EU could offer NATO-style security … https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-41688930.html%5B2%5D … Continue reading Here is a formal, evidence-based summary of how credible news sources are interpreting the proposed Europe–US–UK security guarantee for Ukraine, and its likely consequences for military escalation if Russian attacks continue.

Geopolitics, Military

Inside China’s dangerous nuclear game

Colin Henderson

This article is part of Engelsberg Ideas’ latest series, ‘The Nuclear World Transformed’, in which our writers explore the history and current state of the global nuclear landscape, and how it is being reshaped by a new age of great-power competition.  Between 1990 and 2001 something happened in China that is unthinkable in today’s tense world. In short, an American wandered through the Chinese nuclear archipelago and came out to tell the tale. It sounds like a novel but it is a lesson in game theory and it is pure fact. The American was the director of the Technical Intelligence Division … Continue reading Inside China’s dangerous nuclear game

Economics, Economy, Geopolitics, US

US foreign trade barriers (linked 400 pages~)

Colin Henderson

US administration issued a rambling document with a multitude of ‘trade barriers’. “Where sufficient data exist, an approximate impact of tariffs on U.S. exports can be derived by obtaining estimates of supply and demand price elasticities in the importing country and in the United States. Typically, the U.S. share of imports is assumed constant. When no calculated price elasticities are available, reasonable postulated values are used. The resulting estimate of lost U.S. exports is approximate, depends on the assumed elasticities, and does not necessarily reflect changes in trade patterns with third countries. Similar procedures are followed to estimate the impact … Continue reading US foreign trade barriers (linked 400 pages~)

banking, Economics, Geopolitics, Innovation, Risk, Social Theory

US Tariffs Set to Make world economic and military History

Colin Henderson

It is worth capturing this moment. It has the potential to be elevated to a moment in world economic history in the same vein as Bretton Woods, World Trade Organization, United Nations, and many other bedrock areas that preceded and followed WWII. The broad perspective was to encourage World stability in economic terms and those tools were designed to create a global platform of stability that would make WWxx things of the past. Here we are 80 years later and the flaws in those tools with their commensurate inability to adapt have created a global world of bad actors yet … Continue reading US Tariffs Set to Make world economic and military History