Israel

Israel warns it could be at war with Iran “within two days”

Colin Henderson

Israel continues to demonstrate impossible expectations and is now at odds with every other country or region. I could quickly become the next flashpoint after Us/Iran. AIPAC is in crisis mode. Extract from today’s briefing: Israel warns it could be at war with Iran “within two days”Defence Minister Katz said Israel could re-enter the war within 48 hours if Iran fires missiles at its territory, as Hezbollah accused Israel of fresh ceasefire violations in southern Lebanon.New today: Katz’s explicit 48-hour threshold, running against the US de-escalation track.Why it matters: Israeli and US timelines are now openly diverging — the clearest … Continue reading Israel warns it could be at war with Iran “within two days”

briefing

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 30 June 2026 · 07:53 EDT · ~1,180 words⸻

Colin Henderson

Introduction The day is dominated by a single brittle thread: the US and Iran are due to sit down in Doha today even as Tehran publicly denies the meeting was ever agreed, days after weekend strikes nearly collapsed the Hormuz ceasefire. Risk clusters around energy and the Gulf, but markets are leaning the other way — Wall Street closed at record highs on Monday, treating de-escalation as the base case. The distinct feature today is the gap between diplomatic fragility and market complacency, with a quarter-end tech rebound papering over an inflation print above 4% and rising talk of a … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 30 June 2026 · 07:53 EDT · ~1,180 words⸻

briefing

Morning Briefing — Monday, June 29, 2026 · 08:15 EST · 1,100 words

Colin Henderson

Introduction The day is dominated by a single widening fracture: the Islamabad Memorandum that was meant to end the Iran war is visibly coming apart, with a weekend of US–Iran strikes, Iranian drone and missile attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait, and Tehran threatening a “complete halt” to talks. The notable feature today is the gap between battlefield escalation and market calm — oil actually firmed only modestly and equities are steady, even as the Gulf takes direct fire. Risk is clustering around the Strait of Hormuz and the Doha coordination channel, with a US–Iran technical meeting reportedly due Tuesday that … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, June 29, 2026 · 08:15 EST · 1,100 words

AI, AI_factories, Cybersecurity, Infrastructure

There’s Been a Subtle Shift in the AI Zeitgeist

Colin Henderson

Summarize Investor enthusiasm is rebalancing. By Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway June 26, 2026 at 12:05 PM EDT Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting with us, check out the Odd Lots Discord, where you can hang out and talk with … Continue reading There’s Been a Subtle Shift in the AI Zeitgeist

briefing

Morning Briefing — Sunday, 28 June 2026 · 10:33 EDT · ~1,180 words⸻

Colin Henderson

Introduction The dominant theme today is divergence: the diplomatic track and the kinetic track are moving in opposite directions at once. Twelve days after Washington and Tehran signed a 60-day memorandum, the US struck Iranian targets again Saturday night, Iran put a drone into a residential building in Bahrain overnight, and yet a separate Israel–Lebanon framework was signed Friday in Washington — while oil posted its worst week in a month as Strait of Hormuz traffic recovered. Markets are pricing de-escalation; the wires are reporting strikes. Add a Venezuelan earthquake toll now past 1,400 and a record Micron print reshaping … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Sunday, 28 June 2026 · 10:33 EDT · ~1,180 words⸻

AI, World Order

Artificial intelligence in an age of rivalry, risk, and power.

Colin Henderson

An important new book on the topic which analyses the relationship beyond technology Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. He is also a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He is the author or editor of several books, including American Grand Strategy in the Age of Trump (2018), Making the Unipolar Moment: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Rise of the Post-Cold War Order (2016), What Good is Grand Strategy? Power and Purpose in American Statecraft from Harry S. Truman … Continue reading Artificial intelligence in an age of rivalry, risk, and power.

AI, Business Models, Chips

Challengers gain ground as chip market heats up

Colin Henderson

Challengers gain ground as chip market heats up THE NEWS Rising chip demand is boosting secondary players in the semiconductor industry. TSMC, the world’s biggest manufacturer, is at production capacity, and Samsung has seen a surge in customers: BYD and Google are both talking to the South Korean company. Samsung’s chips lag behind TSMC’s in manufacturing quality, but needs must, one executive told Nikkei. TSMC, Intel, and Samsung are the only chipmakers currently able to offer cutting-edge production at scale. Meanwhile, Google is looking to increase its slice of the AI chip design market, a sector that Nvidia had almost … Continue reading Challengers gain ground as chip market heats up

briefing

Morning Briefing — Saturday, 27 June 2026 · 07:30 EST · ~1,290 words⸻

Colin Henderson

The week-old US–Iran memorandum is already being shot at: US strikes on Iranian sites Friday and Iranian drones over Bahrain at dawn today have reopened the question of whether the ceasefire holds at all, even as oil keeps falling on recovering Hormuz traffic. The dominant cross-current is a market one — Apple’s memory-driven price hikes have turned Micron’s blowout quarter into an AI-trade reality check, dragging chips down and reviving the inflation/rate debate. Quieter but consequential: a US-brokered Israel–Lebanon framework that Hezbollah has already disowned, and a CUSMA review clock that runs out Tuesday. ⸻ 1. What changed US and … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, 27 June 2026 · 07:30 EST · ~1,290 words⸻

AI

Anthropic’s Mythos 5 AI Model Cleared by US for Wider Use

Colin Henderson

 Summarize ​ By Josh Wingrove and Rachel Metz June 26, 2026 at 7:02 PM EDT The Anthropic logo on a smartphone.Photographer: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg Anthropic PBC won US approval to restore some access to its powerful Mythos 5 artificial intelligence model, after resolving Trump administration concerns about the technology’s potential threats to national security. “Anthropic has worked with the US government to address risks associated with the Covered Models,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnickwrote to the company’s chief compute officer in a letter seen by Bloomberg News. “These efforts have yielded significant progress,” he wrote, saying that the model could be released to “certain trusted partners.” The … Continue reading Anthropic’s Mythos 5 AI Model Cleared by US for Wider Use

AI

US allows Anthropic to release Mythos to ‘trusted partners’

Colin Henderson

 Summarize ​ Chris ThomasJune 26, 20266:37 PM EDTUpdated 2 hours ago WASHINGTON, June 26 (Reuters) – The U.S. government on Friday allowed Anthropic to release its powerful Claude Mythos 5 AI model to some “trusted partners,” according to a Commerce Department letter seen ‌by Reuters. The action comes two weeks after the government ordered the AI firm to suspend access to some of its models, due to fears they could be deployed by military intelligence users in China, Russia or other countries of concern. Learn about the latest breakthroughs in AI and tech with the Reuters Artificial Intelligencer newsletter. Sign up here. More than 100 companies … Continue reading US allows Anthropic to release Mythos to ‘trusted partners’