Business Models, Canada, Economy, EU, Geopolitics, Military, NATO

EU Air and Space Shield

Colin Henderson

Some background to something I am watching and which will structurally change risk assessment and global finance. https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/document/download/9db42c04-15c2-42e1-8364-60afb0073e68_en?filename=Joint-Communication%20_Defence-Readiness-Roadmap-2030.pdf https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/document/download/b97e2ffb-4008-463d-bae7-e0ef519847af_en?filename=15102025_Readiness2030_FactsheetSPP_0.pdf The CWP 2026 foresees a European Space Shield Action Plan for Q2 2026. According to the European Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030, the European Space Shield is intended to reinforce the defence capabilities of the Member States and to secure the resilience and protection of space assets and services in response to an increasingly hostile threat environment. It forms part of the broader effort to achieve defence readiness by 2030 through the integration of national and commercial space assets with support from existing … Continue reading EU Air and Space Shield

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Sunday, April 12, 2026 · 06:05 EST · 1,310 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing is dominated by a single structural break: the Islamabad peace talks collapsed overnight after 21 hours, with Vance declaring Iran unwilling to accept US terms before departing for Washington. The ceasefire is now in a precarious limbo — still technically in effect but with no deal, no functional Hormuz reopening, and Israel continuing strikes on Lebanon. That failure radiates into every other active thread. Separately, a cluster of AI model and tariff developments warrant tracking. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Islamabad collapses: Vance declares talks failed, ball in Iran’s courtAfter 21 hours of talks at the Serena … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Sunday, April 12, 2026 · 06:05 EST · 1,310 words

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Saturday, April 11, 2026 · 08:00 EST · ~1,260 words

Colin Henderson

The day’s gravity is Islamabad. Vance, Witkoff and Kushner are on the ground; Iran’s delegation has arrived with public preconditions rather than an opening position. Two fault lines are already visible: Lebanon (Iran insists it’s covered, Israel and the US say it isn’t) and sanctions relief (Iran wants commitments before substantive talks begin). Meanwhile, overnight intelligence confirms China is weeks away from shipping MANPADs to Iran through third-country masking — simultaneously brokering peace and arming for the next round. Hormuz transit remains near-paralysed. Hungary votes tomorrow in what may be the EU’s most consequential election in a decade. 1. What … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, April 11, 2026 · 08:00 EST · ~1,260 words

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Friday, 10 April 2026 · 08:00 EST · 1,290 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single question: does the US-Iran ceasefire, now 48 hours old, hold long enough for today’s Islamabad talks to produce anything durable? It will not. The structural contradictions are already exposed — Iran retains effective control of the Strait of Hormuz, Israel refuses to include Lebanon in the truce, and the delegations arriving in Islamabad carry maximalist mandates from capitals that have not reconciled their core differences. The secondary cluster today is markets repricing both the ceasefire optimism and the Hormuz non-reopening simultaneously, while CUSMA negotiations formally confirm zombie status ahead of the July 1 … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, 10 April 2026 · 08:00 EST · 1,290 words

Economy, EU, Geopolitics, IMF, UK, US

UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL IMBALANCES

Colin Henderson

#IMF March 3, 2026 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY After more than a decade of steady decline, global imbalances have widened in they reflect economic fundamentals and desirable policies, the buildup and persistence recent years. While current account surpluses and deficits can be appropriate when of large imbalances raise concerns when they are driven by policy distortions and unwind in a disorderly manner. The expansion of industrial policies and the rise in trade restrictions—often motivated by imbalances themselves—has intensified the debate on the causes and consequences of global imbalances, despite limited analytical and empirical clarity on how both policies affect the current account. … Continue reading UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL IMBALANCES

Geopolitics, Military

Morning Briefing — Thursday, 9 April 2026 · 7:00 AM EST · ~1,150 words

Colin Henderson

The dominant note today is ceasefire fragility. The US-Iran two-week truce announced April 7–8 — brokered by Pakistan, celebrated in markets — is already under operational stress: Israel struck Lebanon within hours of signing, Iran declared Hormuz closed again citing ceasefire violation, and the White House disputed the closure. Oil partially rebounded Thursday after Wednesday’s 15% plunge. The Islamabad talks beginning Saturday are the real test of whether this holds. Separately, Trump’s post-Rutte NATO confrontation deepened into withdrawal signals and a renewed Greenland threat — making today one of the more structurally significant days of the year so far. 1. … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, 9 April 2026 · 7:00 AM EST · ~1,150 words

China, Middle East

China diplomatic intervention and BeiDou Attribution: Confirmed

Colin Henderson

Behind the scenes China efforts to stop this war is successful for now, and their geopolitical and military influence is consequently enhanced. Israel remains a dark wild card. China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed Wang Yi made 26 calls to regional counterparts and that Beijing’s special Middle East envoy shuttled Gulf capitals pushing a five-point Chinese-Pakistani peace proposal. Beijing now holds a visible mediator role in what had been a US-framed conflict. • New today: Trump’s public attribution to China; Beijing’s open confirmation of its mediation role.• Why it matters: Structural inflection: China successfully inserted itself as a co-guarantor of a US-Iran … Continue reading China diplomatic intervention and BeiDou Attribution: Confirmed

Economy, Geopolitics, Military

Morning Briefing — Wednesday, April 8, 2026 · 08:00 EST · ~1,280 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is defined by a single overnight pivot: the US-Iran ceasefire announced by Trump on Tuesday evening has reversed weeks of escalating energy shock and market stress in a matter of hours. Brent crude is down 14–16%, global equities are surging, and the Strait of Hormuz is nominally open — all contingent on a two-week clock that starts now. The relief rally is real but fragile; the structural conditions that produced the crisis haven’t changed, and the ceasefire terms are already disputed. 1. Top Stories — What Changed US-Iran Two-Week Ceasefire: Hormuz to Reopen Trump announced a “double-sided ceasefire” … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Wednesday, April 8, 2026 · 08:00 EST · ~1,280 words

AI

### Anthropic announces Project Glasswing a new initiative that brings together partners in an effort to secure the world’s most critical software.

Colin Henderson

Anthropic Today we’re announcing Project Glasswing1, a new initiative that brings together Amazon Web Services, Anthropic, Apple, Broadcom, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Google, JPMorganChase, the Linux Foundation, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Palo Alto Networks in an effort to secure the world’s most critical software We formed Project Glasswing because of capabilities we’ve observed in a new frontier model trained by Anthropic that we believe could reshape cybersecurity. Claude Mythos2 Preview is a general-purpose, unreleased frontier model that reveals a stark fact: AI models have reached a level of coding capability where they can surpass all but the most skilled humans at finding and … Continue reading ### Anthropic announces Project Glasswing a new initiative that brings together partners in an effort to secure the world’s most critical software.