Category: Geopolitics

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Sunday, April 12, 2026 · 06:05 EST · 1,310 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing is dominated by a single structural break: the Islamabad peace talks collapsed overnight after 21 hours, with Vance declaring Iran unwilling to accept US terms before departing for Washington. The ceasefire is now in a precarious limbo — still technically in effect but with no deal, no functional Hormuz reopening, and Israel continuing strikes on Lebanon. That failure radiates into every other active thread. Separately, a cluster of AI model and tariff developments warrant tracking. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Islamabad collapses: Vance declares talks failed, ball in Iran’s courtAfter 21 hours of talks at the Serena … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Sunday, April 12, 2026 · 06:05 EST · 1,310 words

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Saturday, April 11, 2026 · 08:00 EST · ~1,260 words

Colin Henderson

The day’s gravity is Islamabad. Vance, Witkoff and Kushner are on the ground; Iran’s delegation has arrived with public preconditions rather than an opening position. Two fault lines are already visible: Lebanon (Iran insists it’s covered, Israel and the US say it isn’t) and sanctions relief (Iran wants commitments before substantive talks begin). Meanwhile, overnight intelligence confirms China is weeks away from shipping MANPADs to Iran through third-country masking — simultaneously brokering peace and arming for the next round. Hormuz transit remains near-paralysed. Hungary votes tomorrow in what may be the EU’s most consequential election in a decade. 1. What … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, April 11, 2026 · 08:00 EST · ~1,260 words

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Friday, 10 April 2026 · 08:00 EST · 1,290 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single question: does the US-Iran ceasefire, now 48 hours old, hold long enough for today’s Islamabad talks to produce anything durable? It will not. The structural contradictions are already exposed — Iran retains effective control of the Strait of Hormuz, Israel refuses to include Lebanon in the truce, and the delegations arriving in Islamabad carry maximalist mandates from capitals that have not reconciled their core differences. The secondary cluster today is markets repricing both the ceasefire optimism and the Hormuz non-reopening simultaneously, while CUSMA negotiations formally confirm zombie status ahead of the July 1 … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, 10 April 2026 · 08:00 EST · 1,290 words

Economy, EU, Geopolitics, IMF, UK, US

UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL IMBALANCES

Colin Henderson

#IMF March 3, 2026 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY After more than a decade of steady decline, global imbalances have widened in they reflect economic fundamentals and desirable policies, the buildup and persistence recent years. While current account surpluses and deficits can be appropriate when of large imbalances raise concerns when they are driven by policy distortions and unwind in a disorderly manner. The expansion of industrial policies and the rise in trade restrictions—often motivated by imbalances themselves—has intensified the debate on the causes and consequences of global imbalances, despite limited analytical and empirical clarity on how both policies affect the current account. … Continue reading UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL IMBALANCES

Geopolitics, Military

Morning Briefing — Thursday, 9 April 2026 · 7:00 AM EST · ~1,150 words

Colin Henderson

The dominant note today is ceasefire fragility. The US-Iran two-week truce announced April 7–8 — brokered by Pakistan, celebrated in markets — is already under operational stress: Israel struck Lebanon within hours of signing, Iran declared Hormuz closed again citing ceasefire violation, and the White House disputed the closure. Oil partially rebounded Thursday after Wednesday’s 15% plunge. The Islamabad talks beginning Saturday are the real test of whether this holds. Separately, Trump’s post-Rutte NATO confrontation deepened into withdrawal signals and a renewed Greenland threat — making today one of the more structurally significant days of the year so far. 1. … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, 9 April 2026 · 7:00 AM EST · ~1,150 words

Economy, Geopolitics, Military

Morning Briefing — Wednesday, April 8, 2026 · 08:00 EST · ~1,280 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is defined by a single overnight pivot: the US-Iran ceasefire announced by Trump on Tuesday evening has reversed weeks of escalating energy shock and market stress in a matter of hours. Brent crude is down 14–16%, global equities are surging, and the Strait of Hormuz is nominally open — all contingent on a two-week clock that starts now. The relief rally is real but fragile; the structural conditions that produced the crisis haven’t changed, and the ceasefire terms are already disputed. 1. Top Stories — What Changed US-Iran Two-Week Ceasefire: Hormuz to Reopen Trump announced a “double-sided ceasefire” … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Wednesday, April 8, 2026 · 08:00 EST · ~1,280 words

China, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Military

Beidou use by Iran confirmed by China

Colin Henderson

Recent successes for Iran missiles and shooting down F15 and several other US warplanes leave US in a tenuous air military position. Beidou is Chinese sophisticated GPS which we understand incorporates signal jumping to combat surveillance and communications capabilities not existing in GPS. I have no direct confirmation on ability to locate US aircraft yet. Background BeiDou publicly confirmed by Chinese embassy —; China is now openly acknowledging its role in Iranian military capability. The “Axis of Evasion” characterisation (Atlantic Council) is now structurally confirmed, not inferential New today: First public Chinese government acknowledgement — this moves the thread from … Continue reading Beidou use by Iran confirmed by China

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 7, 2026 · 9:00 AM EST · ~1,290 words

Colin Henderson

Today is Day 38 of Operation Epic Fury, and the dominant signal is unresolved: Trump’s Tuesday 8pm infrastructure strike deadline has passed or is expiring as you read this, with no ceasefire in place. Iran rejected the Pakistani-brokered 45-day framework and countered with a 10-point permanent settlement demand. NATO is in the worst internal crisis of its history, with Rutte flying to Washington. BeiDou attribution has moved from inference to confirmed. Oil holds above $108. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Iran/Hormuz: Bridge Day deadline expires; no deal, strikes intensifyingTrump set Tuesday 8pm ET as his deadline to hit Iranian … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 7, 2026 · 9:00 AM EST · ~1,290 words

Business Models, China, Economics, EU, Geopolitics, US

Iran Offers Europe a Hormuz Lifeline — and the Price Could Be the Dollar

Colin Henderson

“Iran Offers Europe a Hormuz Lifeline — and the Price Could Be the Dollar” — IBTimes UK, April 4, 2026 https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/iran-strait-hormuz-transit-negotiations-1790190 Worth reading because it connects the immediate Hormuz transit negotiation to the structural BRICS-dollar question: non-dollar energy settlement mechanisms, the US national debt crossing $39 trillion mid-war, and the emerging pattern of European nations negotiating separately with Iran. One of the cleaner structural pieces published this week amid a lot of operational noise. ———————————————- Iran’s proposal to negotiate transit access through the Strait of Hormuz could reshape global energy dynamics and challenge the petrodollar system. Bernadette B. TixonPublished 04 April … Continue reading Iran Offers Europe a Hormuz Lifeline — and the Price Could Be the Dollar

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Monday, 6 April 2026 · Morning EST · ~1,250 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single countdown: Trump’s self-imposed 8pm ET Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the sixth week of a war that has produced the largest oil supply disruption in history. Ceasefire diplomacy is active but thin; a 40-country European coalition has formed outside of NATO and outside of US participation; and markets are watching every Truth Social post. Beneath the operational noise, structural shifts are accelerating: European strategic independence, a new maritime authority model in Hormuz, and a Canada-US trade calendar that hits a hard review date in July. 1. Top … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, 6 April 2026 · Morning EST · ~1,250 words