Category: US

Economy, Growth, US

Monetary Policy 5 Yr Fed Framework Review

Colin Henderson

August 22, 2025 Chair Jerome H. Powell At “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy,” an economic symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, WyomingWatch Live Over the course of this year, the U.S. economy has shown resilience in a context of sweeping changes in economic policy. In terms of the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, the labor market remains near maximum employment, and inflation, though still somewhat elevated, has come down a great deal from its post-pandemic highs. At the same time, the balance of risks appears to be shifting. In my remarks today, … Continue reading Monetary Policy 5 Yr Fed Framework Review

Canada, Risk, US1 Comment

Financial Accountability Officer is an Officer of the Legistlative Assembly of Ontario

Colin Henderson

The Potential Impacts of US Tariffs on the Ontario Economy SummaryThis report examines Ontario’s trade relationship with the United States and estimates the potential impacts of US tariffs on Ontario’s exports, imports, GDP, employment and inflation.The United States is Ontario’s most important trading partnerThe US accounts for most of Ontario’s international trade, with 77 per cent of Ontario’s total goods exports and 60 per cent of the province’s total services exports. Imports of goods from the US accounted for 68 per cent of Ontario’s total goods imports, while services imports from the US were 63 per cent of total services … Continue reading Financial Accountability Officer is an Officer of the Legistlative Assembly of Ontario

Economics, Economy, Geopolitics, US

US foreign trade barriers (linked 400 pages~)

Colin Henderson

US administration issued a rambling document with a multitude of ‘trade barriers’. “Where sufficient data exist, an approximate impact of tariffs on U.S. exports can be derived by obtaining estimates of supply and demand price elasticities in the importing country and in the United States. Typically, the U.S. share of imports is assumed constant. When no calculated price elasticities are available, reasonable postulated values are used. The resulting estimate of lost U.S. exports is approximate, depends on the assumed elasticities, and does not necessarily reflect changes in trade patterns with third countries. Similar procedures are followed to estimate the impact … Continue reading US foreign trade barriers (linked 400 pages~)

Canada, Economy, US

In response to today’s news, when United States imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, CCI President Benjamin Bergen issued the following statement:

Colin Henderson

Council of Canadian Innovators In response to today’s news, CCI President Benjamin Bergen issued the following statement: “The latest tariffs imposed by the U.S. government are another stark reminder that Canada cannot take access to the American market for granted. Now is a moment for us to prove what we’re capable of; we can build a better and more resilient economy starting today. While we fully support the federal government’s decision to respond with countermeasures, retaliation alone is not a strategy. Canada needs a long-term plan that strengthens our domestic economy, reduces our dependence on unpredictable trading partners, and ensures Canadian firms have … Continue reading In response to today’s news, when United States imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, CCI President Benjamin Bergen issued the following statement:

US

The Great Emboldening – The Atlantic

Colin Henderson

The parallels with Elon Musk are dramatically highlighted in this Atlantic piece. The Trump administration are reshaping the US administration and of this there is no doubt. Of deeper meaning what will this mean for society, business and economy? The impacts will affect business, stock values and society. This requires additional thought and risk assessment. The Great Emboldening – The Atlantic Whatever Bezos’s personal reasons are, equally important is the fact that he is emboldened to interfere so brazenly. And he’s not alone. A broader change has been under way among the tech and political elite over the past year … Continue reading The Great Emboldening – The Atlantic

Economy, Growth, US
Colin Henderson

Civilised societies depend on institutions. The more complex the society, the more vital those institutions. Institutions provide stability, predictability and security. Companies, schools, universities, and courts are all institutions. But the most important institutions are those of the state. This is why Donald Trump’s assault on what his supporters misleadingly call “the deep state” is so dangerous. Some of them think the state should be servile to the whims of the great leader. Others think it should be at the service of the wealthy. Both sides agree that its ability to meet the needs of the wider public is of … Continue reading

US

An Unchecked Trump Rapidly Remakes U.S. Government and Foreign Policy

Colin Henderson

The president’s swift moves underscore the confidence of an administration with a much firmer grip on the levers of government than during his first term. At every step in his second term, Mr. Trump is demonstrating how unbound he is from prior restraints, dramatically remaking both domestic and foreign policy at a scale that has little parallel.Credit…Eric Lee/The New York Times By Luke Broadwater Reporting from Washington The last time President Trump held office, he tried to make deep cuts to foreign aid, but was blocked by Congress. He is finding little resistance from fellow Republicans this time to his move … Continue reading An Unchecked Trump Rapidly Remakes U.S. Government and Foreign Policy

Canada, US

Trump may leverage intel sharing against Canada, former intelligence adviser warns

Colin Henderson

‘It’s a serious threat and we have to think about it,’ Vincent Rigby told an international affairs conference The Canadian Press Kyle Duggan Published Feb 12, 2025  •  2 minute read OTTAWA — A former top intelligence adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he fears the U.S. might put intelligence sharing on the table in talks about the state of Canada’s defence spending. Vincent Rigby said he worries about intelligence being used as a negotiating tool as the Donald Trump White house seeks to extract gains from Canada. “We hear so much about defense spending and two per cent, and what … Continue reading Trump may leverage intel sharing against Canada, former intelligence adviser warns

Geopolitics, US

Is It the 1930s All Over Again?

Colin Henderson

A historian sees parallels between the world today and the economic uncertainties and rise of authoritarian rule in the pre-World War II era August 26, 2024 The past decade and a half has seen upheaval across the globe. The 2008 financial crisis and its fallout, the COVID-19 pandemic, and major regional conflicts in Sudan, the Middle East, Ukraine, and elsewhere have left residual uncertainty. Added to this is a tense, growing rivalry between the U.S. and its perceived opponents, particularly China. In response to these jarring times, commentators have often reached for the easy analogy of the post-1945 era to … Continue reading Is It the 1930s All Over Again?

US

Will Harris’s Lead Last? A Few Questions That Will Shape the Answer.

Colin Henderson

By Nate Cohn Republicans have struggled to cast Kamala Harris in a negative light.Credit…Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times Kamala Harris has wrapped up an extraordinary month. In that short time, she’s completely transformed the 2024 presidential election. She leads in most national and battleground state polls, and the real-world signs of the enthusiasm for her candidacy are everywhere, from filled-up stadiums to record-setting campaign contributions. All this was hard to imagine before President Biden dropped out, when a majority of Americans had an unfavorable view of her. Her previous run for president did not go well. If anything, her record in national politics saddled … Continue reading Will Harris’s Lead Last? A Few Questions That Will Shape the Answer.